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Post by Nazdakka on Sept 23, 2008 19:49:12 GMT -5
Why the voting for W_M, people? The idea doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
Vote Serdash
Bandwagon voting for the sake of bandwagon voting is unhelpful.
(Reposted. Misclick on 'delete' button.)
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Post by Nazdakka on Sept 23, 2008 19:53:37 GMT -5
@w_M: Point. My reading of the Priest is that they investigate a stiff every night, and get their full roles.
Also, the Ex-Hero will know when the Oracle is dead because no message will arrive.
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Post by water_moon on Sept 23, 2008 20:12:51 GMT -5
well not every night Night one no one was dead. And if the oracle is sclienced they won't be able to talk to the former hero, so if there was no communication, it wouldn't be until the second night that the hero of old could know for sure. And that's assuming that the oracle gets the target in, a response, and the message out to the hero all in time.
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 23, 2008 20:24:11 GMT -5
Don't have the energy for a monster post, so here's the things I see as a problem based on my last read-through:
W_M: a lot more vocal than normal, and a lot more strategy-intensive than normal. Striking me as quite suspicious, but...
Liq: not throwing around random accusations, and is/was attempting to steer the discussion into, upon thinking about it since yesterday, a completely useless direction. Who cares why there wasn't two kills night one? There are a ridiculous amount of possibilities to consider in order for this question to actually mean anything helpful to the town (since "person A was targeted but was hiding in their cellar" has to be considered separately from "person B was targeted but was hiding in their cellar"), and we really have no way of knowing. What we do need to be figuring out with regards to night one activity is why cygnus, (and I'm pretty well convinced it's because of last game, but that's not the point of this post.) I think liq should know this and is trying to steer the conversation into pointless circles. This combined with his change in behavior regarding accusations makes him quite suspicious.
Vote: Liquid Evil
...though I reserve the right to change my mind as more discussion happens.
Also, speak the hell up everybody.
-CG
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 23, 2008 20:29:50 GMT -5
Okay, if I'd just read someone else saying liq's why-not-two-kills thing was a runaround I'd be demanding a further explanation, so here it goes:
For the moment, pretend that we found the right answer to the question of why there weren't two NK's. Now, what would that tell us? If the answer was...
"both targeted the same person", well, then we should be talking about cygnus, shouldn't we?
"one group screwed up and didn't post", this tells us absolutely nothing of value in terms of securing a lynch.
"someone was hiding in the cellar", could provide us with some helpful information, except that whoever was hiding in the cellar doesn't know who else was hiding in the cellar, so they can't know that they were targeted. But, let's pretend someone broke out their crystal ball and was able to tell us certainly that person X was targeted but was hiding in their cellar. Then what? Right, we discuss why they were targeted. Like we should be doing with cygnus, who we know was targeted.
Waste of time.
So, everybody, why cygnus?
-CG
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Post by Noodle on Sept 23, 2008 20:56:04 GMT -5
Am I the only one who finds Muzzz's silence concerning? I've seen too many games where the mafia try to keep attention away from them by fading into the background.
- Noodle
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Post by Noodle on Sept 23, 2008 20:59:56 GMT -5
I see on the front page that Muzzz has been an active user in the last 24 hours, yet he's deliberately chosen not to participate. It's not like there has been activity anywhere else on these boards - the most recent post in another "Home on the 'Net" board was two days ago. He's obviously monitoring this discussion, but is afraid of drawing attention to himself by throwing his two cents in. That type of behavior screams mafia to me.
Vote Muzzz
- Noodle
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Post by Noodle on Sept 23, 2008 21:02:53 GMT -5
Another reason to vote for Muzzz - if he was just reading, he wouldn't have to log in, and could read as a guest without leaving record of having been here. Since he logged in, and failed to post, that can only mean one thing - he had to send his vote as an anti-townie via PM.
It's all falling into place - I strongly urge you all to vote for Muzzz. There is more evidence against him than against anyone else.
- Noodle
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Post by Noodle on Sept 23, 2008 21:05:57 GMT -5
It's a sad, sad day for us all when Noodle is the voice of reason . . .
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Post by nolecub on Sept 23, 2008 21:51:54 GMT -5
Nice jab there w_m. Maybe I'm not dense enough to see right through you. My only question is are you a dragon or undead....only the light of the moon shall the truth be told.
dash and muzzz have been very quiet and it has been over 24 hours. I will still give them till mid afternoon tomorrow to make some sort of contribution.
As for why Cygnus...I really don't have a clue. Anyone's toes he step on in the last game?
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Sept 23, 2008 22:16:37 GMT -5
Hey Naz! I knew you’d show up. :waves back: unvote NazdakkaLiq: not throwing around random accusations, and is/was attempting to steer the discussion into, upon thinking about it since yesterday, a completely useless direction. Who cares why there wasn't two kills night one? Although I found it pretty likely (read: I’d say 99% certain) that there were two separate targets and a failed NK, I wanted to see who would oppose that position and conveniently find something else more likely. Playing dumb is a common mafia pitfall (and so is needlessly agreeing). Plus this also has the benefit of getting people talking. Hardly a useless direction especially on day one when discussion is going in no direction. Anyone's toes he step on in the last game? Well, he apparently won the game singlehandedly according to Colorless_Green. Driving the final nail in C_G’s coffin might be considered “toe stepping” to some. Vote: JasonBecause his answer from before didn’t set right with me and he hasn’t really contributed since. Read: Agreeing with an odd Nolecub hypothesis and then lying low.
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Sept 23, 2008 22:18:09 GMT -5
@ Noodle- Yus, yus, I saw your anti-muzzz argument but since he said he wouldn't be able to post often this round, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until he posts.
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Post by Jason Maher on Sept 23, 2008 22:45:14 GMT -5
I haven't been lying low - I'm just not in the habit of automatically checking this board yet, like I am with dii.net. I also didn't agree with nolecub - I was correcting his figures. I am currently studying statistical modeling, which is underpinned by probability theory, so when someone starts quoting percentage chances, I automatically start crunching the numbers to see if they're correct. It was only after I posted that nolecub admitted he pulled the figure from his nether regions. As you pointed out though Liq, my own figure assumed randomness, which is not necessarily a good model for decision making in a game of mafia.
I currently find 3 people suspicious:
- CG - for his silly point that Liq was asking silly questions - WM - as someone else pointed out, she normally isn't this big on the strategy thing - serdash - is behaving exactly how he behaved when he was my mafia buddy in a previous game, i.e. post nothing of any consequence and openly bandwagon
muzzz I believe has been silenced. This seems the most logical explanation of his logging in but not posting. Of course, he could like myself be permanently logged in while his computer is switched on. Perhaps, noodle, he is trying to send a message that he is here but unable to post. The only problem I see with this theory why would this ability be used on day 1? Unless they were sure that people would notice muzzz's absence and suspect him on that basis.
Bob: I did not make any numbers up, I showed how I derived the figure, which is correct on the assumption of randomness.
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Post by Jason Maher on Sept 23, 2008 22:46:39 GMT -5
Man there's some bad grammar in my last post...
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Post by Noodle on Sept 23, 2008 22:49:56 GMT -5
@ Noodle- Yus, yus, I saw your anti-muzzz argument but since he said he wouldn't be able to post often this round, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until he posts. But Liq, the front page, at the bottom shows who has logged on in the last 24 hours, and Muzz is listed. He obviously was here, but didn't post anything publicly under his name. If he didn't need to post anything at all, there would be no reason for him to log in. He could have read the posts without logging in, so the only reason for him to log in would be to send a PM. This tells me he's voting to kill someone by PM during the night, which marks him as mafia.
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