SPF Exile Mafia - Round 2

[Nac Runo]

"Dear People of Ravenshore, perk up your ears to the sound of your Mayor. Our little town is in grave danger. The dragon tribes and the undead horde see our little town as a valuable post in between their war and they want to take it from us. Let's show them that it is not up to them to decide to spill our blood for their cause. We already know they have installed their spies among us, and it is for sure that they will soon start taking lives. Their numbers may be few but make sure that their deads pile up in front of the town gate before it is too late for us all. Now go to your homes and get ready for the coming day, cause tomorrow we will be cutting the first head."


Now, since i am terrible at this narration thing i do not know how long it will last. I will be sending all of the role PM's in half an hour. If you do not receive a PM till than, you can assume to be a plain townie. All players including the normal townies has a possible town role and you are responsible of telling me whether you are using your ability or not. In case my PM box is ready here is my e-mail, which is also visible from profile i hope:

nac.runo86atgmaildotcom

Every day will end and start at 00:00 AM GMT +3. I am ~3.5 hours late right now but first night will take 48 hours anyway therefor it shouldn't be a problem.

If anyone not signed up wants to be in, just send me a note and i will put you in case someone becomes idle. I will replace anyone not sending me notice or posting on the thread for 4 days (2 night time + 1 day time) as long as there is a reserve player.

If you have questions use PM/Mail and DO NOT post in the thread at night time. Due to the experience level of the players i do not think a problem will occur but i will not hesitate to mod kill anyone not following the rules (including forum rules of water_moon).

Current line up at 16 people:
cygnus
ray
friedbananazzzz
serdash
water_moon
jrlafrance
nolecub
nazdakka
liquidevil
noodle
jason
sitro
aman
muzzz
colorlessgreen
bobthewarrior

Here are the rules again:

A major difference in this round, there will be ghosts walking around at night. Meaning -> The player lynched at daytime will be regarded as a ghost and he/she will be allowed to post a maximum of 3 posts per night only. No daytime talk from ghosts. The ghosts can also give votes but their votes will only take affect in case of daytime ties. The votes from ghosts will be for the day following the night. If the ghost is an anti-town role he/she can no longer attend bad guy meetings at night time (e-mail, chat vs.).

About role reveals, after every kill (lynch included), the dead will reveal to be either a)human, b)undead or c)dragon. And that is all the role reveal you get with the exception of two power roles.

Anti Town Roles:
1) Undeads: 2 people
Ability: Recruit ghost (one time) -> they can recruit a lynched ghost, their 'living' number doesn't increase with that recruit but that particular ghost will be able to attend night time meetings. Only human ghosts can be recruited.

2) Dragons: 2 People
Ability: Silence (one time) -> They have the power to silence a specific player for day time and night time. Once a player is silenced (which i will send the player through PM and no public notice will be given about who is silenced) he/she will have to stay muted for a whole day (no speaking for a whole day time) and also he/she will not be able to perform any night time actions ( use block).

Pro Town Roles & Abilities:
1) The Witch will have a secret revive potion and she has the ability to revive any dead person from dead (ghost or not). It is a one time ability only and it will fail if the witch choses the 'recruited ghost' to revive. Than she will lose her one time ability without reviving any one but will learn the identity of the 'recruited ghost'. This role replaces the doc. Witch's potion takes effect before everything else, such as Undead recruit ability.
2) The ex-Hero (retired Hero) will have a bond with the Oracle as will be told below. Moreover the votes of the Hero will be counted as two votes.
3) The Oracle will have the power to invest a person every night and determine whether they are evil or good. All the anti town roles plus The Witch will give a red/evil glow and all the rest will give a white/good glow when inspected by the Oracle. The Oracle can send a message to the ex-Hero of the town every night with the condition of not revealing him/herself. The Message will be sent to me to be transmitted to the Hero.
4) The Priest will have the power to inspect the dead in order to see their role before dying. A recruited ghost can not be detected by the Priest.
5) Dragonslayer If the dragon group attacks this player one of the attackers will die as well as the dragonslayer. If the attacking dragon group has only one player alive initially, than the dragonslayer kills the attacker without getting killed him/herself.
6) Cleric If the undead group attacks this player one of the attackers will die as well as the cleric. If the attacking undead group has only one player alive initially, than the cleric kills the attacker without getting killed him/herself.
7) In addition every citizens has a use "hide in the cellar" option, which only protects you for a night and does nothing more. All the pro towns also have this ability.

Voting: Votes should be in bold, and on a line to themselves. If you wish to unvote, please do so explicitly and include the name of the person that you were previously voting for. So:

Unvote: NacRuno

Vote: Innocent

Day/Night: 2 RL days/game day, 1 RL day/game night. Accidental night-posts should be editted out ASAP. Night posts that aren't edited away within a reasonable amount of time will result in a mod kill. First night will be 2 RL days. The game days end/start at 00:00 GMT + 03:00 (21:00 GMT + 00:00).

Lynches: No-Lynch vote is allowed. If there is a tie than the votes of the ghosts are considered. If there is a tie in the votings of the ghosts than whomever the eldest ghost (the one died first) voted for is going to be lynched. If there is no ghost vote than there will be no lynch for the day.

Role PMs: No direct quoting of the role PMs.

Ending situation: If all anti-town roles are killed than the town wins. If there is a 1-1 case for the last day/night than any remaining anti-town group wins (So it is possible for the dragons and undead to win at the same time if only a player from each group remains alive for the last day). Game continues in case of 1-1-1 (townie-dragon-undead).

Have fun to all...
Nac.

[Nac Runo]

I have sent PM's to every one of you townie or not therefore if you didn't receve any from me send me an e-mail. Also some clarifications that came to me.

1) Anti towns also have the "hide in the cellar" ability to be used once. And as long as two of the group are alive they can both perform NK and one of them hides.

2) The Oracle doesn't know the identity of the ex-Hero either.

[Nac Runo]

There is a crowd around the town well. You observe someone being pulled up by the water bucket from the well. You do not have the stomach to see what it is since the smell tells you that the body was there for almost the whole night.

It's Cygnus. someone shouts. From the mourning around you understand that it he was a respected one in the village. You head straight to the town tavern to learn what is the discussion about the matter.

Night 1 is over and Day 1 starts. Cygnus is dead. His body is in human form.

Have fun to all
Nac.

[jrlafrance]

Wow, what a lousy way to start the day! To bad I don't drink, or I'd get drunk with all the rest of you.

[Liquid Evil]

Cygnus wouldn't want us to drink. He'd want us to have clear minds in order to bring his killers to justice. Wouldn't you, dear sweet Cygnus?

I want a tally from the subsequent posters. Explain the lone death. Do you think that A) both groups targeted Cygnus, B) someone stayed alive and saved themselves, or C) one of the groups made a mistake and didn't send a PM to make their kill, or D) Something else (please explain this one).

[nolecub]

Let us not only try to explain the lone death, but what that explaination could mean.

Taking Liq's choices:

A) For both groups to target Cygnus on night one, is a crapshoot. The (don't hate me for this) odds just do not justify this. Plausability < 3%

B) Someone using their one time only hide in the cellar ability brings me to three conclusions. The target has a power role that they did not want wasted with a night one NK, a newer player wanting to make sure they could participate, or aman, who always seems to be targeted early. (That was a rib for those who don't know). Total plausablity somewhere between 15-30%.

C) Bad guys screw up. Seeing as how I forgot where the mafia games had moved too after expressing interest in the first one, I am leaning more to this. Plausability 60-80%

D) Something else...very doubtful. Again < 3%.

So I am thinking it is more of a bad guy slip up more than anything. Interested in what others think as well...

[Jason Maher]

Having been a bad guy in a past game when there were two groups, and realising just how easy it is to screw up, I would view this as the most likely scenario. But I would not discount the cellar option either. If I recall, last time we had an option to hide/stay awake, quite a few did so on night 1, although it must be recalled that on that occasion staying awake had other perks (which won the town the game).

The chance of both teams targeting the same person is 12/14x1/14 = 12/196 or about 7%, which is low but not beyond the realms of possibility. To explain: both teams can only target the same person if the first team doesn't hit one of their rivals (a 12/14 chance, given there are two bad guys on each team and 16 players overall). The other team then has a 1/14 chance of hitting the same target.

The other option is that one of the groups did not act because they surmised there would be a good chance for failure on night 1 due to the likelihood that a number of people would hide in the cellar. Maybe not a likely scnario, but one that should be countenanced.

I am interested, nolecub, in how you arrived at your figure of 3%. Care to enlighten us?

[jrlafrance]

Wow, way too much math for me!

I'm 100% sure that there is a possibility that most of the people decided to hide last night, or at least thought about it, probably. ;D

[Liquid Evil]

You guys can't treat the first option (both groups targeting Cygnus) as random though. If you are mafia, then you have to decide which players are going to be the biggest threats. Taking out someone that can't be easily swayed to your agenda or someone that has a knack for sniffing out tells needs gone sooner rather than later. Since he helped clench the win for the town in the last game, he set himself up as a free-thinking threat, and is therefore, in my eyes, a better candidate for an earlier NK as opposed to someone that makes little to no waves throughout the round. This is why I believe this option has better odds than the ~3-7% you guys have given it.

The mafia also had to take into account who usually has a short shelf-life and therefore would be a good candidate for a "hide in the basement" save so they wouldn't waste their NK. Similarly, since there's two groups, it might be expected that the other group would target one of the more "obvious" potential NK targets. Cygnus is a threat, he usually lives a long while so probably wouldn't expect to be NK'ed the first night, and is a more obscure target than some of the "obvious" choices. (Z_Y and aman come to mind). If I had to peg it with a percentage, I'd say it was closer to 30-40% that he was targeted by both groups. That's not to say it's correct, I would just label it more plausible than the rest of you. Regardless if he was targeted by both groups or not, I think the person responsible for his death, participated in the last round (and therefore saw Cyggy's awesome powers of mafia pwnage in action). The list of people that played in that round are as follows:

Water_Moon
Liquid_Evil
jrlafrance
Nazdakka (host)
noodle
friedbananazzzz
muzzz
Serdash
Colourless Green

I'm also not really agreeing with the high odds that you guys are giving the mafia mess-ups. Two people should have plenty of discussion time in 48 hours to determine who to select (for the kill) and who to select (for the PM to send Nac). I think it's a bad mistake to underestimate the mafia.

My real money, however, would be on option B. Someone hidden, some likely target, stayed alive and well in the basement to foil the mafia's plans. And it wasn't me.

[colorlessgreen]

a) possible but not tremendously likely.

b) the most probable - I believe all the people who think a lot of people used the cellar ability on night one.

c) somewhat likely (especially given last game), but between a 48 hour first night and the higher profile of this game as opposed to the last one makes it a good bit less likely.


All that being said, a is more likely than the pure randomness because cygnus did effectively singlehandedly win the last game for the town.

I have absolutely no idea who to point at as suspicious at the moment, but I'm sure I will before the day is over.

-CG

[water_moon]

I could see both groups going after cygnus, and I'd see a mafia screw up at about the same probablity. Both at a higher than random chance.

What I think is most likly is one target chose to hide in the celler.

Though another option that everyone sees to be ignoring is that a bad guy group chose not to attack for fear of hitting the cleric or dragonslayer. Not only do they save themselves the possiblity of missing their target, but they won't hit a self distruct. While I find this less likly than an "oops forgot to send the target in on time/check my pm to see my roll" it IS a possiblity, and one that would tell us more about that group of evil-doers.

[nolecub]

@jason - the 3% is not mathmatical by any means...just a gut feeling(thus the term plausability vice probability).

@w_m - good in theory, but I do not see that working too well in practice. If a team was scared to act now in fear of getting losing one of their own, what will the do when the odds grow greater to pick an 'untouchable' as the lynces and NK's pile up. Besides, they still would have gotten the kill on night one.

[colorlessgreen]

Situations where it is advantageous for the mafia not to kill are very, very rare.

-CG

[friedbananazzzz]

Superlame-tooearlytobeworthwhile-intialgutfeeling Suspicious List:

Ray
CG
Muzzz

All the situations are possible, though the MISTAKE and CHOOSING not to kill are both VERY unlikely, and I'd put the CELLAR option as only slightly higher than the DOUBLE KILL.

-----
*My apologies for the caps, just too lazy to type out the italics tags each time and ctrl+i keeps bringing up a sidebar or something...

[raypatean]

I can see why Cygnus was targeted. He seems to be close to the end in most of the games he plays, and is a solid player.

As for what happened, I think the likeliest thing was that someone stayed hidden and survived an attack. The odds that both players in the team forgot to check in, and send in a PM are very slim. The problem is that we won't gain any information if that person came forward, because the anti-town factions also have the ability to stay hidden.