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Post by Jason Maher on Jun 13, 2009 19:40:03 GMT -5
So someone (multiple someone's in fact) comments on me not posting much (in their opinion) and uses it as an excuse to vote for me, and now someone is using the fact I answered those suspicions also a reason to vote for me? Ever heard of damned if you do, damned if you don't?
Of course now we know the two people who suspected me yesterday (nole and merlin) are both townies, which of course makes me look bad, which I imagine was the whole reason the scum killed merlin, because they knew someone would pin it on me.
As for my vote for w_m, it was of the same kind as nole's vote for me yesterday (i.e. an attempt to make me/her as the case may be talk). I'd take note that no-one has followed my lead. If she was innocent, I would expect the scum to be rather keen to jump on and finish this. In fact 4 scum + 1 townie = lynch = game win. The only way we'll see the scum vote for one of their own today is if two or three townies jump on the same horse.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Jun 13, 2009 20:14:19 GMT -5
As for my vote for w_m, it was of the same kind as nole's vote for me yesterday (i.e. an attempt to make me/her as the case may be talk). I'd take note that no-one has followed my lead. If she was innocent, I would expect the scum to be rather keen to jump on and finish this. In fact 4 scum + 1 townie = lynch = game win. The only way we'll see the scum vote for one of their own today is if two or three townies jump on the same horse. That is a good point
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Post by water_moon on Jun 13, 2009 21:22:21 GMT -5
Of course now we know the two people who suspected me yesterday (nole and merlin) are both townies, which of course makes me look bad, which I imagine was the whole reason the scum killed merlin, because they knew someone would pin it on me. Or CG for saying they appeared connected, or soylent for saying she'd vote for either one, or myself for saying I found merlin suspect or Firehorse for flawed logic in voting for one based on the OTHER's voting pattern and yet defending the voter. Now that puts us to five possible frame ups, and I SERIOUSLY doubt those are the five townies, besides, it's not an unknown mafia tactic for them to psudo frame themselves, it makes a great excuse. I know both Goltar and Nac have purposely set out do just that in the past. Nac is dead. As for the votes, it's sill morning, I don't see any but yours. At all. And frankly when we have so much riding on it wouldn't you think it odd if suddenly we we had a bandwagon this early in the day? The mafia's not THAT stupid. It's much safer to pull that sort of stunt late in the day. Oh, and you never answered my question, you just compounded it: If nole was so dangerous for voting for you and then not taking off (the only reason you've given for your pile on vote, which didn't hold up since he DID take his vote off of you), then why is it okay for you to do the same? I'll be posting my suspect list after the little one has gone down for the night, so in about 1 1/2 hours.
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Post by goltar on Jun 13, 2009 21:23:29 GMT -5
As for my vote for w_m, it was of the same kind as nole's vote for me yesterday (i.e. an attempt to make me/her as the case may be talk). I'd take note that no-one has followed my lead. If she was innocent, I would expect the scum to be rather keen to jump on and finish this. In fact 4 scum + 1 townie = lynch = game win. The only way we'll see the scum vote for one of their own today is if two or three townies jump on the same horse. We're not even halfway through the day yet. Why would they risk themselves getting caught at this point? You do have a very valid point though.
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Post by bobthewarrior on Jun 13, 2009 21:26:58 GMT -5
Quick refresh pre-post, WM and Goltar have posted since I wrote this, but I'm too tired to analyze what they said and change anything below. Going to bed now. Ah crap, pushed the wrong button and lost my post. Grrr... @wm - too lazy to do a real quote, but "why is the mafia power role "the seamstress"? Naz's sick sense of humor. I mean come on, what do you think of when you think of mafia? Probably the classic Italian mob, a bunch of overweight white guys with funny accents ordering around a bunch of not as overweight white guys with funny accents. Who in their right mind would name one of their henchmen "the seamstress"? Either that, or what Soy said. What do you think? goltar - Soy - Playing dumb? She missed the details of the mafia power role, which says "vanilla townie" to me. The mafia and the town power roles need to know what they're up against and what advantages they have. A plain vanilla townie, once they get the PM from the GM, can pretty much ignore what the power roles are until they come into play. I don't believe there's been much, if any discussion about the seamstress this game,eh? W_M - Probably townie. Going after Merlin for the oh-so-obvious retaliation isn't something she would do. I suppose she could've been pushed into it by her pals, but I doubt it. Noodle - has he posted since I did? Need more. Goltar - It took you three hours to post that drivel? "Soy - intentionally framed?. W_M - Probably clean unless she's role playing which she's good at. Noodle - could be mafia could be tonwie. Bob - See noodle. Firehorse - genuine attempt, not easy to fake, but not that hard. Xanth - could be mafia trying to show helpful." Blah blah blah. Looks to me like an attempt to post a lot without saying anything, you didn't take a stand on anyone except Jason and that was pretty weak. Either you're a more-lost-than-usual townie or you're mafia. Shoot, I just did what you've been doing. Ok, I think you're mafia. There, fixed it. Firehorse - A few posts, but playing confused. Probably townie. Xanth - I still think townie based on his first post insight. Haven't seen anything to change my mind. Jason - I think damned if he does. IE I'm thinking mafia and not hiding well. CG - I don't have a good read on him, I got confused yesterday when the wrong names were getting said in some posts. I'll need to re-read before judging. So, I'm thinking mafia are Goltar, Jason. I think the other two are probably CG and Noodle, but less sure.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Jun 13, 2009 22:43:29 GMT -5
Goltar: Seems intent on helping the town. His posts have been helpful and pro –town.The fact that he suggested a suspect list today also added to his credibility in my view. He is the person I suspect the least. Xanath: Came out strong and very pro-town and has been silent. However by his own admission he stated he is a feast or famine style player. At this point I do not suspect him either. Second to Goltar
Soylentred: Not so sure but seems like her usual townie self to me
The rest are mildly on my radar. Jason: Has a hint of mafia - however what little experience I have seen of his play style he is the same and was Town before even though I thought mafia. Bo b: I am suspicious of him. I think the silence is intentional Noodle: Same reason. Noodle is usually vocal. Why no posts? Plain Townie, I doubt it. I’m starting to think that if nobody becomes more suspicious he may be our best lynch. CG: Someone also on my radar at this point. The 2 people he suspected are dead. Something to consider but I’m not sure that he is the best lynch at this point. Water Moon – Either Town or brazen mafia.
Since Noodle is playing very out of character I am leaning with lynching him today and taking my chances. I think one of Noodle or Bob is mafia. It seems just too odd that we have 2 townie who refuse to post. Bob has 2 posts? Noodle has 0 or 1. Both absent this game. Why? In lieu of a better option that is my gut at this point.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Jun 13, 2009 22:44:32 GMT -5
VOTE: NOODLE
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Post by water_moon on Jun 13, 2009 23:28:23 GMT -5
Once we have elimited the impossible, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truth. We know nolecub is not mafia. We can deduce it is unlikly either Nac Runo or merlin were mafia. Not having all the facts we must make some decutions but otherwise assume the worst.
Now my thoughts assuming EVERY one is mafia (with post numbers): Soylent: Suspicious to both nolecub (82) and merlin (83). Attempt to underplay the danger of the situation by implying that the town may have a hidden factor acting in their favor. (post 111) She could be purposly saying she wasn't paying attention to the rules in an attempt to hide her full knowledge of the mafia role. (117)
Colorless Green: Great set up for wacking two townies, using logic and their own posts against them for compleate safty.(84) But either failed on the follow through or decided NKing merlin would make a better logic cover.(113) Also on merlin's good list (83) and thus prime excuse in "why would I kill some one who trusts me?" Useful insights even when he's laid out poor ideas. Has been VERY helpful and assumed a very stong leadership position. what's VERY helpful in a townie is VERY dangerous in a mafia.
Goltar: On merlin's good list (83) and thus prime excuse in "why would I kill some one who trusted me?" Wants a full list of everone's suspicions, which is rather handy for 1. gauging who's the safest to go after, 2. who's going to go after you, and 3. safer for hiding your co-consipitors in the long, large list.
Xanth: A few long posts in a short time frame. Insights/explinations (63). Suggests himself as a good night save (68) Then advocates a dangerous path for the town (73). just enough inter play to make it seem he's active (77) and then disappears for the rest of that day and this morning. No votes. No suspicions beyond he wouldn't play like merlin. Nothing solid to go on or relevant to THIS round if he's NK'ed.
Noodle: Inactive early on but that's normal. The normality is unsual for him, but then that's been the case in the past as both townie and mafia. Just too hard to read at this point.
Jason: Points out he's never been mafia before (104), which is no better an arguement for not being now than Nac is always mafia and thus they must have killed one of their own. Then bandwagons nolecub for the joke vote that didn't move (102) before doing the exact same thing himself (109/120). Takes pains to point out that he was "framed", when no one has even suggested guilt based on merlin's suspicions (120) despite the fact that HE placed the vote on nole.
FIREHORSE: Doesn't want to vote for Jason (,87), instead bandwagons nole (who voted for Jason and pointed out the lack of logic) baised on CGs observation (89) but insists the logical conclusion of the observation about merlin, who triggered the comment, doesn't necessarily hold true as a reason to vote for him (98). With merlin NK'ed he's in position to point out the lack of desire to kill a townie. Joking self depreciation to down play his ablility. (90) Insists he would not have chosen merlin (110)
Bob: who? Limited posting and little insight/ new content. Gives suspects but with cavets only. (124)
So to wrap up, some are less suspicious than others, but to assume innocence blinds one to the possiblities.
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Post by soylentred on Jun 14, 2009 6:54:54 GMT -5
I am truly lost in this game. Think of it - we are on day 2 and facing doom. Usually on day 2 we still have the luxury of some bad guesses while we find our feet. We don't get good at our lynches hardly ever until the third day and the facts compound to make solid votes.
And I am sorry Water- I do think this game is too lopsided and there must be more to it.
Noodle - where art thou - I have seen him be this same amount of absent and totally be mafia. It doesn't seem to matter he doesn't post either way.
We still have time - I am going out with my group to run and will be off here for a few hours.
If it gets going while I'm gone I am leaning towards Jason, Water and Noodle.
Also - this is a day 2 like no other - if our cop is alive or our doc I don't see much to lose by helping us right now. Maybe that is naive but oh well.....
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Post by bobthewarrior on Jun 14, 2009 7:03:57 GMT -5
@wm - Cavets? Not sure what cavets are, I assume you mean caveats? Fine, here's a new list: Mafia - Goltar, Jason, CG, Noodle Townie - Everyone else. I'm terrible at finding power roles, so I haven't bothered to look for them. Also, you haven't answered my question, and I'll add another one. 1) (unanswered) - Why do you think the mafia power role is called the seamstress? 2) (new) - Why do you care about #1? FIREHORSE - On what are you basing your accusation that my silence is intentional?
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Post by goltar on Jun 14, 2009 9:21:24 GMT -5
Jason's situation in my mind hasn't gotten any better, and enough others seem to think he's mafia. I think we may have a chance here. Vote: JasonAnd by the way, that post only took three hours because most of the time between when I started posting and when I finally finished was spent taking care of the previously mentioned 2 year old ball of energy, with some breakfast making thrown in there. Of course, if w_m isn't all that concerned about my help...
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Post by soylentred on Jun 14, 2009 10:28:17 GMT -5
My top 3 suspicions are:
Noodle - I have seen him do this before be a really lay low mafia.
Jason CG
I am going to
vote:Noodle
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Post by Jason Maher on Jun 14, 2009 11:56:19 GMT -5
@soly: calling the cop and doc out? How would that help us precisely? Ok, the cop can give us two names (hopefully not dead townie ones), and ask for the docs protection tonight for a third name. But if the doc comes out as well, he/she/it is the obvious target, with the cop going tommorrow night, assuming there will be a tomorrow night. I could understand calling the cop to come forward in a dire situation, but calling the doc forward as well?
I could say a lot in my defence, but I suspect it will only be twisted and misquoted yet again, so I will leave it at: if I get lynched, the town loses.
Now, trying to figure out who else may be actually guilty, I look first at the three people alive yesterday whom I know were good: nole, merlin, myself (yes, I'm ruling out the mafia hitting one of their own and declining the opportunity for a quick win in order to spread confusion). Who, if anyone, made a serious effort yesterday to cast suspicion on any of these 3 people? A couple of people had digs at merlin, namely Bob and w_m. However, I would point out that w_m stuck to her guns on merlin despite the bandwagon building on nole. I would have thought if she was mafia she would have joined the conga-line.
Now it's interesting that apart from merlin, no-one seriously voiced any strong concerns about nole until right at the end when a bandwagon formed. I will freely admit I jumped on said wagon, nole's vote on myself and limited time to make my mind up being the main contributing factors. However, and this is a big however, I have not seen a person question the other people whose votes condemned nole, in order: CG, soly, goltar, fire. Unless the 5 of us who voted for him constitute the 5 remaining townies, I would suggets there are 2, perhaps 3 scum in that list, and I would suggest the middle 3 are the prime targets.
Firehorse has been too all over the shop to conclude anything much. He defended me on the strange basis that I normally die quickly (true, but irrelevant), and then voted for nole at the same time defending CG's earlier vote as legit. I can't conclude anything one way or the other about fire, and that worries me.
soly has made strange suggestions, and played the "I'm naive" card. soly also made a 100% pure bandwagon vote - the only reason given was "that's the way the town is rolling" (also mentioning a switch to merlin if the town rolled that way instead). So we have either a lazy bandwagoning townie, or a scum, whose two suspects are our two confirmed townies.
goltar raised red flags on my re-read of the day 1 posts. He brought up the whole night 1 kill thing, by stating he found the choice of Nac to be odd. The reasons given are to me odd: despite Nac being a good player and good to eliminate early, he is also easy to frame because he is frequently mafia. I was surprised to find goltar started both discussion points: the night 1 kill, and frameability, completely unprompted. For mine the points about Nac, if accepted at face value, don't constitute a case for an odd NK, rather a win/win scenario for the scum. goltar later repeats this opinion that the scum have far more to gain by leaving Nac alive. Personally I see this as a none-too-subtle way of saying "if I were mafia, I would have acted differently, thus I'm not mafia" (the conclusion of course being implied rather than stated). I also find goltar's ultimate reason for voting for nole rather flimsy, particularly since he did not follow through on it: let's lynch nole, and if he turns up good, we lynch CG tomorrow. Further, he appears to be seeking a bandwagon again today (backing himself up with others suspicions), this time with me as a target. All in all, enough for me to:
unvote: water_moon vote: goltar
I did not re-read on day 1 before voting, a dumb move, because I definitely would not have band-wagoned. I would have went for one of the 4 already on the wagon. Instead, in my haste, I only paid proper attention to nole's posts, and seeing a flimsy reason for his vote remaining on me, and an existing bandwagon, took the easy route. Stupid, worthy of suspicion on my part, and sloppy play that I regret.
I should finally not let CG off scot free, though I do tend to find people who jump on bandwagons more likely to be mafia than people who start them. CG clearly suspected both nole and merlin (and myself, to be fair).
Now of the four people who voted for nole prior to myself:
CG and soly both listed nole and merlin as prime suspects, and fire defended CG in doing so against goltar. goltar said we should question CG if nole turns up townie, but has thus far failed to do so. I can't see all 4 being scum, nor the 3 who seem to be flocking (CG, fire, soly) - surely they wouldn't be that obvious. I can see goltar and CG or goltar and fire feigning opposition while both being scum. I am absolutely certain at least one of these 4 is scum, and most probably 2 of them. 3 out of 4 I would regard as unlikely and a little bit too obvious, but I won't rule it out 100% (just 99%). All 4 would make them a very bold scummy group indeed.
I'm not sure how coherent this post is, as it was constructed piece-meal, and edited multiple times before being posted as I re-read and re-re-read stuff. Hopefully something makes sense to someone and assists in netting a scum.
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Post by soylentred on Jun 14, 2009 12:41:31 GMT -5
@soly: calling the cop and doc out? How would that help us precisely? Ok, the cop can give us two names (hopefully not dead townie ones), and ask for the docs protection tonight for a third name. But if the doc comes out as well, he/she/it is the obvious target, with the cop going tommorrow night, assuming there will be a tomorrow night. I could understand calling the cop to come forward in a dire situation, but calling the doc forward as well? If we don't get this right - there will be no 3rd day. Who cares if the doc is in danger of going tomorrow night or the night after the doc saves him if that day does not arrive. Mainly I was appealing to the cop - if he investigated one of our current targets at least that will give one more chance of getting it right.
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Post by soylentred on Jun 14, 2009 12:47:17 GMT -5
Jason - what kind of a vote is that - against the one person who has a vote against you?
If it is all going to be retaliatory we will have a 4 way tie for lynch.
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