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Post by water_moon on Nov 14, 2008 17:28:42 GMT -5
Vote:water_moonToo much thought being put into it. What would be Cyg's motivation to lie? Depends on his role, a wrassler could have lied thoguh his teeth. I simply said I belived him and gave my reasoning. That doesn't make him right. I called Jr France out early, AND pushed muzzz when he wanted to go after nolecub instead if you'll recall. Which if it's otherwise correct puts us currently at: Noodle 1 (Jason) Jrlafrance 4 (Nolecub, Liquid_Evil, Water_Moon, FBZ) Nolecub 3 (Jrlafrance, Naz, muzz) @muzz you are correct on the image. Though I don't agree on your reasoning for the vote switch. It's notoriously difficult to start a new lynch train on some one the next day, especailly when they're already leading today.
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Post by Noodle on Nov 14, 2008 21:04:24 GMT -5
Pretty convincing, purely circumstantial case there, Liq! I could almost believe it myself!
Except that my posting habits were identical to teh last game where I was the ex-hero, until the final denouement when roles were revealed. <yawn>
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Nov 14, 2008 21:46:37 GMT -5
Pretty convincing, purely circumstantial case there, Liq! I could almost believe it myself! Don't you, though? Except that my posting habits were identical to teh last game where I was the ex-hero, until the final denouement when roles were revealed. <yawn> Well when you bleed townie today (or whatever role you're going to claim), who should we target tomorrow to avenge your needless death? Do your suspicions still lie with w_m and maati or have I graduated passed them?
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Post by goltar on Nov 14, 2008 23:08:06 GMT -5
Current votes: As a warning, there is a very minor possibility I will be a bit late ending the day tomorrow night. Not very likely, but just in case, everyone is notified. If I am late, I will trust everyone to carry on as if the day were ended on time, but I won't enforce it.
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Post by Noodle on Nov 14, 2008 23:36:52 GMT -5
Vote: Water_moon
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Post by raypatean on Nov 15, 2008 0:28:26 GMT -5
I see. No attempt to prove his case, only trying to save his own hide. Liq's case may be circumstantial, but that's a lot of circumstances where you have mafia-ish tells. That's good enough for me.
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Post by raypatean on Nov 15, 2008 0:28:46 GMT -5
Crap, I'm really slipping today. Foo'!
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Post by Nazdakka on Nov 15, 2008 6:06:27 GMT -5
Me + Liquid + Jason + Nolecub + Magnum + Mr. T = 6 townies, with 10 players remaining. I would think there are 1-2 Wrestlers remaining.
So... can't Magnum and Mr. T simply come out and end this? There are a few possible wrinkles, then we would mean we need one more townie name from Magnum to make it certain.
I can't really see Goltar using two third party roles with separate win conditions, so the hidden role, regardless of allegence, should come out in the wash one way or another.
Let's clear up one unknown, anyway. Liquid's case seems reasonable to me.
Vote Noodle
PS: I see no particular reason to doubt Cygnus.
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Nov 15, 2008 13:08:08 GMT -5
I'm Magnum.
Jlrafrance came up as the Mullet Troll. (which may or may not mean I was targeted by the MT that night)
BobTheWarrior (n2) and water_moon (n3) are both Pro-Town.
I also really trust maati and Ray Patean as townies. The first because I believe Jason and put in that position myself, I'm sure I would be pretty confident about my SO's role as well. Ray Patean stirkes me a plain townie trying to make the game fun with a bit of role playing. I'd say 90% good vibes from both of them.
Hopefully with Noodle's death, all the wrestlers will be dead. I'd probably guess Muzzz or Naz as the mystery role. (And I'm still wagering the role is anti-town) Probability says Muzzz has a better chance of being it than Naz so if the game is still raging tomorrow, he might be a good place to stick a knife. If that falls through, then hit Naz the next day. Just my gut.
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Post by water_moon on Nov 15, 2008 13:44:51 GMT -5
I knew you had a roll, I just figured it was a dirty one. I'm still not sure I belive you.
Let me tell you why: if you honestly think noodle is the wrassler, and hidden roll is anti-town, then since the game ends when the wresslers are put in the pokey we need to take out muzzz or Naz FIRST. You do not tend to make those kinda mistakes in logic.
However. I'm willing to give you the benifit of the doubt about being a PI, though I'm not inclined to follow your lead.
vote:muzzzz
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Post by goltar on Nov 15, 2008 13:51:53 GMT -5
We interrupt this broadcast with a public service announcement. then since the game ends when the wresslers are put in the pokey Not necessarily. There are four possibilities, centering around the alignment of the hidden role. 1) The hidden role is aligned with the town. In this situation, you are correct. 2) The hidden role is aligned with the wrestlers. In this situation, you are correct in that the hidden role is effectively one of the wrestlers. 3) The hidden role is aligned with the druggie and has a similar win condition. In this situation, you are correct. 4) The hidden role is a fourth alignment with a unique win condition. In this case, you are not correct. We now return to your regularly scheduled finger-pointing.
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Post by nolecub on Nov 15, 2008 15:09:41 GMT -5
Unvote:water_moon
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Nov 15, 2008 15:39:25 GMT -5
I knew you had a roll, I just figured it was a dirty one. I'm still not sure I belive you. Let me tell you why: if you honestly think noodle is the wrassler, and hidden roll is anti-town, then since the game ends when the wresslers are put in the pokey we need to take out muzzz or Naz FIRST. You do not tend to make those kinda mistakes in logic. No lapses in logic because I was under the impression that the game wouldn't be over until all of the anti-town factions were stopped. Since I believed Noodle to be the wrestler, lynching him would prevent the NK's. Also assuming that jrlafrance was indeed the MT, I would be free to investigate people nightly until I found the hidden role. So basically, if Noodle was the last wrestler like I believed, it would be an auto-win situation. Looking at goltar's win scenarios, Noodle's death still has good consequences for 2-3 of the potential end game scenarios. "1) The hidden role is aligned with the town. In this situation, you are correct."Noodle's death as the last wrestler will not affect the outcome. "2) The hidden role is aligned with the wrestlers. In this situation, you are correct in that the hidden role is effectively one of the wrestlers."Noodle will not be the last of the wrestlers and the NK's will continue. "3) The hidden role is aligned with the druggie and has a similar win condition. In this situation, you are correct."Here is the scenario I think you're worried about. If we lynch Noodle and he's the last wrestler, then the Druggie-esque role wins above the town.** **Reviewing the first page concerning the roles, I think you're right. The hidden role is listed as "Other" under the anti-town section, but not attached to it, meaning I'd believe it to be a more Druggie-oriented role. "4) The hidden role is a fourth alignment with a unique win condition. In this case, you are not correct."This one is vague to me, but as I understand it, the game keeps going regardless of wrestler elimination. If this is the case, then my first line of thinking is correct and since I'd be unable to die if Noodle is lynched as the last wrestler, I would be able to investigate every person (and as long as no one voted, no one would be lynched) so it would be an auto-win for the town. Since I know you're golden, I'll trust your line of reasoning in case the #3 win condition proves to be correct. This basically means my death, but so be it for a town win. I still think Noodle is 95% likelihood our last wrestler. Find the hidden role (and it will be negative at this point so I'd advise lynching anyone that comes forward claiming to be the hidden role on the townie's side) and then execute Noodle. Like I said, our hidden friend will be either Muzzz or Nazdakka. I'm sure of it. unvote: Noodle vote: Muzzz
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Post by muzzz on Nov 15, 2008 16:17:57 GMT -5
I'm not going to waste anyone's time trying to argue I'm not some undefined role. Unvote: Noodle Vote: MuzzzJust don't lose, mkay?
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Post by water_moon on Nov 15, 2008 16:48:55 GMT -5
We're about to get ready and head out to a dinner party, so I won't be able to goad any more people to good sense. But I know there are folks we haven't heard from. At least put in your two cents!
@ muzzz it's your own fault for trying to prevaricate all the time.
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