Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Feb 20, 2009 0:09:33 GMT -5
Blissfully. I don't think you can have it both ways. If you want us to believe Rays false statement we have to consider you mafia also. Fair enough. But if I successfully lead to his lynch and he turns up mafia, that should speak volumes as to my alignment. Regardless, my shelf life is usually short so you won't have to worry about me for long. Liquid seems enthusiastically pro town to me but his points are nonsensical. When you’ve played as long as I have, you get a feel for certain players and learn to trust your gut. My initial reactions are never wrong. Ray AND goltar. Just compare their entrances into this thread with their reactions at being called out.
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SiTro
Junior Member
Posts: 56
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Post by SiTro on Feb 20, 2009 5:45:13 GMT -5
I was looking for more of a verbal description of how likely Ray was to be mafia. I referenced the previous round he was in so that it was known that he had played mafia before, and the round could be looked up for an example of how he played then.
But Liq is correct with his calculation of the probability, it follows from Bayes's Rule. P(B|A) = P(A&B)/P(A)
There's a lot of suspicious behaviour going on. However, the biggest challenge I'm facing is separating people who are genuinely acting suspicious from people who are behaving how I would expect them to behave anyway, even if that behaviour would normally be seen as suspicious.
Did anyone else see Gorny's stealth vote? Almost a page later and no one's commented on it yet.
Vote: Gorny
My reasons are to get his reasons.
I'm disappointed by Nazdakka. He's played enough rounds that I'd have thought he'd contribute more than "I'm confused". Different in the last round on these forums where it was not a normal round, but for a vanilla game?
Nac Runo: By troubling I mean does it significantly alter your subjective probability that either is mafia?
I'm going to need more confessions people.
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Post by ludacris on Feb 20, 2009 5:55:58 GMT -5
I had a busy week. I had to study for examns so don't take my absence in the first day as a sign. I just caught up with all the posts, but seeing that I am new here and I don't know how some of you guys played before I have no idea yet. However I think asking other people for reason takes the suspicion of yourself. I noticed Ray doing that in a different maffia game and he turned out to be mafia. Just my 2 cents
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Post by Nac Runo on Feb 20, 2009 6:23:09 GMT -5
gorny voted for sint out of the blue yet nobody asked why o ther than sitro. you at least own us a few words gorny.
@liq: if it is only your gut feeling asking for ray's lynch, i am not willing to follow it. I do not see anything to vote for in ray's reaction. goltar on the other hand is a different matter. i also do not remember goltar getting this emotional in these games.
vote: goltar
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Feb 20, 2009 6:48:30 GMT -5
I'm not backing off of Ray. He's the one that needs to go down first, Nac.
@ Sitro- His vote for Sint? I saw that as retalitory because Sint had called him out earlier about skimming, nothing more.
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Post by soylentred on Feb 20, 2009 7:18:03 GMT -5
Lets see how this goes...
vote Gorny
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sint
Full Member
Posts: 105
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Post by sint on Feb 20, 2009 9:09:51 GMT -5
Thank you. I am right. --- Without comment?? Voting Ludacris is a smart move for the town. This was the worst move possible at the time posted. Not only is it very possible luda is still a powerrole/mafia, but lynching him would give as little information as possible. You (two) wanted to lynch a complete non-poster. How does that help the town? If he shows up town, what then? If he shows up mafia what then? Completely useless. --- So here's a question.. why don't YOU take action and question people you don't get/find suspicious? Ask a few questions to the people who havne't spoken much, or who you want to hear more from.. Try to get people to explain more or at least post more. Every bit of information can help the town. However saying ''we need a lynch'' but leaving it at that will NOT help the town. What if we all line up and say ''yeah, we need a lynch..''..? Lets see how this goes... vote GornyWhy? Reason please.. --- I do suspect sint. Immediately after daybreak, he asked me how many mafia I thought there were, a question which no townie could possibly know the answer to. You're saying I shoudln't have asked the question? I shouldn't get people's oppinions? I at least am VERY interested in finding out how many mafia there are... You think that's suspicious? So be it.. --- Naz is taking a real safe position. Mafia in hiding? Good comment. --- Time to divert my attention again.
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gorny
New Member
Posts: 11
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Post by gorny on Feb 20, 2009 9:26:00 GMT -5
Simple reason why I voted Sint:
He had me pegged as a threat to the town. I could very well be the governor and an asset to the town. Lynching me would be bad.
Back in the afternoon.
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Post by goltar on Feb 20, 2009 9:50:58 GMT -5
I see liquid and sint are both happily ignoring information this game. Liquid is just flat out ignoring it, and sint needs to read a bit further in/after what he quotes for the answers to his questions. i also do not remember goltar getting this emotional in these games. I generally only do when someone hits a hot spot for me. When Jason made a (joking to him) comment about water_moon looking for a divorce if I had NK'd her. That went way beyond anything reasonable in my mind. And arrogance is something that has always offended me very easily. I find it insulting to humanity in general, and personally, it reminds me of someone I try not to think about very much at all that had a very bad effect on me and members of my family. Again, a very touchy area. Simple reason why I voted Sint: He had me pegged as a threat to the town. I could very well be the governor and an asset to the town. Lynching me would be bad. Back in the afternoon. You're setting off too many alarms. Vote: gornyNow if someone can come up with something better, then by all means, guide me, and I shall follow as I see fit. But until then, I'll go with my own impressions and analysis.
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Post by soylentred on Feb 20, 2009 10:15:19 GMT -5
[quote author=sint board=general thread=75 post=3483 time=1235138991
So here's a question.. why don't YOU take action and question people you don't get/find suspicious? Ask a few questions to the people who havne't spoken much, or who you want to hear more from.. Try to get people to explain more or at least post more. Every bit of information can help the town. However saying ''we need a lynch'' but leaving it at that will NOT help the town. What if we all line up and say ''yeah, we need a lynch..''..?
Why? Reason please.. ---
[/quote]
some questions so far...
Soy: Happy to have survived the night? (gee I ignored this one and was called out on it) Gorny: You don't intend to post in a third person voice throughout this game? @ firehorse- Isn't "scumbag" one word? @ Soy- If an NK occurs in the woods and no one is around to hear it, does w_m still die? Sorry Liquid in general I find your questions very good and there is some forgiveness because this is early days. naz: what's up? my favourite question asked by Sint himself - what a way to rattle a person.
Such pithy questions. Is that the sort you think I should be asking? Some people ask this type of question to promote discussion, I have other means. I much prefer to see what jumps off of a persons brain unprompted than to prode them with meaningless questions.
Why I voted Gorny ? I have a few reasons, of course I like to keep SOME strategy to myself.
remember this?... (sint post) Lynch order: Goltar Gorny
Town: Nac Soy
One of the reasons I voted Gorny is because he was on your lynch list which I agreed with and I am holding off on Goltar for now.
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Post by soylentred on Feb 20, 2009 10:16:26 GMT -5
Well I balled that up - that was quoting Sint's questions to me and my reply. Sort of.
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Post by Nac Runo on Feb 20, 2009 10:20:08 GMT -5
Personally i am satisfied with goltar's answer at the moment. Although i still think he overreacted to Liq's usual playstyle his posts are more like a sensitive player rather than a defensive mafioso.
Liq is too confident about ray & goltar but his gut feelings alone are not enough for voting imo.
unvote: goltar
Will have a reread before end of day to cast my vote, i hope to hear more from naz by then.
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SiTro
Junior Member
Posts: 56
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Post by SiTro on Feb 20, 2009 10:54:58 GMT -5
Soy: How do you suggest to see what jumps off a person's brain unprompted if said person happens to be a mafia player trying to slide under the radar? They're not going to say anything if they can get away with it.
Gorny: You could also be the mafia and lynching you would be good. Or is that a role claim with only two votes on you?
Unvote: Gorny
For now.
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sint
Full Member
Posts: 105
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Post by sint on Feb 20, 2009 10:57:26 GMT -5
Simple reason why I voted Sint: He had me pegged as a threat to the town. I could very well be the governor and an asset to the town. Lynching me would be bad. Back in the afternoon. Hehe.. amusing stuff. I think 3 people so far have called me suspicious in some sort of manner. I know I am pro-town, does that make those 3 people mafia? I think not. I never even called you out directly, except asking you multiple times to respond to me and my question. Which you haven't done. Which makes me think you're not reading well/skimming/ignoring things. Which in turn makes me think you're not looking for flaws or whatnot = mafia behaviour. That put you on my lynch list, but not at the top because this is all circumstantial and I haven't played a game with you before (that I can remember). Yet you act as if I'm calling you a confirmed mafioso, you act threathened and scared. All those traits are only available for someone anti-town (or should be anyway), since a townie has nothing to lose! I will lay down my life to prove someone wrong in these games as all townies should be willing to do. Yet you don't.. you take a second place on a lynchlist too hard just to be pro-town. And yes, you could be an important pro-town role. You could be the winning grace that we all need and I'd be dead wrong from the beginning, but then you should've just claimed a role if you're really scared you were going to be lynched. Being lynched, if I may remind you, was not in the picture yet though.. so this ''half claim'' is even more rediculous. Every post you make makes you look more anti-town. How about you post your suspicions of your top 4 anti-town looking people. Try to make a case against your number one suspect and hey, maybe you can sway us all. --- I see liquid and sint are both happily ignoring information this game. Point me and we'll see. --- Such pithy questions. Is that the sort you think I should be asking? Some people ask this type of question to promote discussion, I have other means. I much prefer to see what jumps off of a persons brain unprompted than to prode them with meaningless questions. Why I voted Gorny ? I have a few reasons, of course I like to keep SOME strategy to myself. remember this?... (sint post) Lynch order: Goltar Gorny Town: Nac Soy One of the reasons I voted Gorny is because he was on your lynch list which I agreed with and I am holding off on Goltar for now. I don't care if you like to ask questions or not, if you do nothing then the mafia will have an easy time. If you have other means of finding out things, then by all means use them.. but so far I haven't really seen it. Oh and ofcourse, you can keep some strategy to yourself. However voting without ANY reasoning is not that. Don't throw back at me that I had him on my lynch list too, which means that your vote isn't based on thick air, you cannot trust me either. Me having him on any list what-so-ever shouldn't give you base to do with that list whatever you want. Do you trust me? Based on what? Can you give at least one reason why you vote gorny? Please not something already said by someone... --- Oh ps. I'm keeping my vote on goltar, I don't know the tally atm (will look in an hour or two) but I'm fine with gorny too seeing how both are acting suspicious enough imo.
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sint
Full Member
Posts: 105
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Post by sint on Feb 20, 2009 10:58:17 GMT -5
hehe sitro posting while I was at it... good post there.
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