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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 11, 2008 19:34:48 GMT -5
Ok, back from work. For the purposes of this post, I'm gonna be assuming that quote tags work the same way as they do on the SPF. If they don't, I apologize for the ugly. First things first:
Nub.
Now, on to the important stuff. The way I see it, there's two prevalent possibilities at the moment.
(1) Jrla is the remaining mafia, and fbz used a last ditch vote, knowing he was pwned and would be revealed as mafia to distance himself from jrla. Supported by liq's death following him listing jrla as a likely suspect.
(2) I'm being framed. Fbz used a last ditch vote, knowing he was pwned and would be revealed as mafia to link himself to me. If this is the case, I'm leaning towards noodle as the other mafia, as he was the first one out of the gate to point out that I must be mafia because fbz and I were voting for the same target. Supported by liq's death after his diatribes against me for the former half of day one (despite the fact that he stated he did not suspect me partway through the day). If this is the correct way to be reading things, it could also be w_m instead of noodle, as she'd have a reason to take out both liq and myself (both of us listed her as a likely suspect).
His vote for fbz occurred as the fourth vote, when the score was 1-1-3. He had no impact on the outcome, and could not have changed it by voting for someone else. This just shows he was bandwagoning, he wouldn't have been sacrificing one of his own. Unvote rules would have allowed him to "be swayed by the argument" of someone else who voted for one of the other potential lynchees and switch his vote over to at least allow a tie - he lost nothing by jumping on the bandwagon.
Likely more to come.
-CG
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 11, 2008 19:35:14 GMT -5
Damnit, quote tags don't work right. Oh well, as I said, sorry about the ugly.
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 11, 2008 19:43:49 GMT -5
Ok, after reviewing my post, I want to clarify some things, and split this out into three options:
(1) This is currently my favorite option (though not really by much) because it takes everything into account and assumes an intelligent mafia.
(2a) (Noodle is mafia, I'm being framed) I still think this is quite likely, but I'm not quite as fond of it as I was during the latter half of work, because it assumes the mafia either wouldn't notice or would expect us not to notice that fbz's vote was wasted, and liq had somewhat recanted from believing me to be mafia. I still think it's likely because noodle quite obviously either didn't notice or didn't think we'd notice either of these things.
(2b) (W_M is mafia) Now that I think about it, if WM is mafia, she didn't plan to frame me with fbz ahead of time as retaliation (because no night occurred between me calling her mafia and fbz voting with me right before dying), though she still has a lot to gain by liq dying, and fbz could have thought up framing me to save his partner all on his own. Least likely of the three IMO.
I'd put the odds at roughly: (1) 45% (2a) 40% (2b) 15%
-CG
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Post by Noodle on Sept 11, 2008 20:14:12 GMT -5
I am quite confident that the remaining cultist did not vote for friedbananazzz, because they could easily have switched their vote to jrlafrance and thereby saved the only other member of their team. It could easily have been rationalised at the time. This means that the remaining cultist is either colorlessgreen (who voted for jrlafrance), or water_moon (who didn't vote at all.)
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 11, 2008 21:36:29 GMT -5
(a) mayor, (b) time zones (fbz had no votes at the point where the day ended for me).
(a) is the big one, though. The odds of me being mayor are quite small as compared to the odds of one of the people voting for fbz being the mayor, and anyone who did a last minute switch like that to save someone who was about to be revealed as mafia would undoubtedly be the next lynch target.
Option (2a) is gaining.
-CG
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Post by Noodle on Sept 11, 2008 21:56:26 GMT -5
Hmmph. Sounds like you're scrambling for something here. Sounds like an excuse to me. I still think that either you or water moon is the remaining cultist. I know what you don't, which is that I'm not a cultist. (If you're a cultist, then you obviously know I'm not) I consider it between you and water moon. She has barely posted, using her toddler as a reason. I've been the father of a toddler, so I know how much time that can take. Her not being here much is understandable, except that it's her hosted page. Hmm. Would she commit to participate in the game if she couldn't actively participate?
I dunno, CG, either you or WM are cult. I'm just the dogcatcher.
- Noodle
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 11, 2008 22:10:05 GMT -5
colorlessgreen: you're saying a whole lot, but not really saying anything. Lets look at some facts: We got extremely lucky lynching a Cultist the first day. Muzz (RIP) obviously wasn't the Mayor or Enforcer, and obviously not a Cultist. At that point, it's 5-2 townies with the Mayor and Enforcer still alive. LE is NK'd, 4-2 townies. During the previous day, W_M didn't post, or only posted once, but makes it a point to state that she didn't get a chance to vote. This doesn't mean that she didn't have a hand in the NK'ing of LE. LE first voted for fbz, then myself, then serdash, then noodle. Yet fbz accused me of jumping on the bandwagon. Typically, isn't the last one or last few considered bandwagoners? I like to believe I'm a free thinker, and someone everyone can trust. I'm pretty sure my posts have been truthful thusfar! Obviously fbz was trying to deflect some attention away from himself. Day 2, and Cygnus and W_M have the fewest post counts.... W_M, one of my top suspects, is the first to vote on day 2, an obvious ploy to try to divert attention from her being a possible Cultist. VOTE: WATER_MOON
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 11, 2008 22:12:55 GMT -5
Hmmph. Sounds like you're scrambling for something here. Sounds like an excuse to me. I still think that either you or water moon is the remaining cultist. - Noodle Correction Sir Noodle, there are still 2 Cultists remaining, in case you forgot...
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 11, 2008 22:24:16 GMT -5
Are you all bloody nuts? 5 townies, 1 Enforcer, 1 Mayor, 2 Cultists. Friedbananazzzz has been lynched. He was a Cultist. -CG
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 11, 2008 22:25:29 GMT -5
While I'm at it, W_M, cygnus, and dash, speak up. I'm sick of arguing with my two prime suspects.
-CG
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Post by cygnus on Sept 11, 2008 22:26:23 GMT -5
Interesting bandwagon on fried, good that one turned out ok.
When liq voted for fried, vote tally was liq 2, jrla 1 and fried 1 (w_m. noode and jrla not voting). jrlafrance's vote for fried was clearly to save his own skin at that point. Had he and fried been on the same side, he'd have voted for liq's lynch, not fried's. He's innocent, plain and simple.
Vote tally at this point: liq 2, jrla 1, fried 2. Then dashy switches his vote, ostensibly to secure a lynch. When the voting is tied and right after he's called liq as suspicious. When the rules clearly state that there will be a lynching, no matter what. The switch is there either because a) he has reason to believe liq is not scum or b) he has reason to believe fried is scum. I think it's the former, but either way, dashy is clean.
Vote tally: liq 1, jrla 1, fried 3. Noodle puts in his vote for fried. By this time, it's getting close to the end of the day and a couple of us (CG and I) have indicated that we won't be around to change our votes. At this point, it's highly likely that fried will be lynched even without noodle's vote. Even if noodle had voted for liq/jrla, it would have taken two more votes for that person, or a vote switch from fried to get fried off the hook. As I said, highly unlikely. Noodle is still a suspect in my book.
vote tally: liq 1, jrla 1, fried 4. fried does not give up, but votes for jrlafrance. liq 1, jrla 2, fried 4, w_m not voting. It requires someone shifting a vote from fried to jrla AND w_m voting for jrla for an escape, but the crucial piont is that he hadn't given up hope. Had noodle been his partner, I think he would have thrown some confusing/suggestive remarks around instead to create as much chaos as possible. That he held out hope indicates his partner hadn't let him down at this point. I'm leaning towards noodle being a townie because of this.
Not sure what to make of CG, I still don't like his early reaction to liq's trolling. But fried would have done better than vote for the same person his partner was voting for, I think. Suspect.
I'm fairly confident w_m is the other cultist. Assuming she had the time to checkin and cast a vote yesterday at the last minute (and it's easy to see/sympathize with her not being able to), her choices were between the devil and the deep sea. Voting for fried to make it 5-1 would immediately raise questions about why it was needed: he was going to be lynched anyway. Voting for someone else would have caused just as much suspicion when he showed up clean. If she were scum, the best course of action would be to avoid voting at all. Which explains the no-vote even when the day is 48 hours long. Add to that the fact that she was one of two staying low yesterday, and the other has been shown to be scum.
Summary: jrlafrance, serdash: "sure" townies noodle: somewhat suspect, leaning towards townie colorlessgreen: somewhat suspect w_m: let's lynch her
Dash, is there anything you want to tell the town?
vote: water_moon
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 11, 2008 22:28:13 GMT -5
My honest mistake CG and Noodle, after re-reading the OP again, I do realize that there is indeed only one Cultist remaining. This does make me wonder about things...
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Post by cygnus on Sept 11, 2008 22:36:19 GMT -5
We got extremely lucky lynching a Cultist the first day. Muzz (RIP) obviously wasn't the Mayor or Enforcer, and obviously not a Cultist. At that point, it's 5-2 townies with the Mayor and Enforcer still alive. Am I missing something here? 1. How are you sure we were "lucky" in lynching a cultist yesterday. Couldn't one or more of those who voted for him known better? 2. How are you sure muzzz wasn't the mayor or the enforcer? 3. At that point it was 6-2 townies and the mayor or the enforcer may not have been alive. Unless you, and not dash, have something to tell the town. But I don't think that's the case. Day 2, and Cygnus and W_M have the fewest post counts.... Try doing a word count instead of post count and let me know if I'm still at the bottom.
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Post by Noodle on Sept 11, 2008 22:56:16 GMT -5
I'm still not sure if CG or Wm is the other cultist, but Cygnus makes a compelling case. I'm willing to stand behind it.
Vote: Water_Moon
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Post by Noodle on Sept 11, 2008 22:57:44 GMT -5
If Cygnus turns out to be the other Cultist, then he's played extraordinarily well. That's the other possibility that popped into mind.
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