SPF Exile Mafia - Round 1

[Liquid Evil]

Sept 8, 2008 16:19:30 GMT -5 water_moon said:

And since we have nothing but experienced players here this time, that tells me they either A. belive he's a power role or B. we, there is no B, if they wanted to kill some one who was sneaky smart they'd go for you, and they didn't.

A. doesn't make sense because the mafia would have no reason to believe he was a power role because he didn't have the chance to post anything to blow his own cover. It was a shot in the dark in terms of power roles, but a good choice based on past games (not because he usually has a role since that has no bearing, but because he's usually a good player).

B. I believe muzzz is sneaky smart and I personally would have gutted him like a fish the first night had I been mafia. I'd also like to point out that you went from calling me the guy who thinks he's making sense to sneaky smart. Which is it, cookie pants?

____________

Here's some food for thought for the rest of the players. I accused those in my first post because of past mafia games. Also because I like to make waves. But Cygnus, w_m, and colorlessgreen, in my mind, have played or watched enough (or have engaged in enough critical thinking) to know that muzzz always seems to do well regardless of his role. Up until the last round or two, ol’ muzzz had always graced the game with his appearance in the final few remaining players. To that end, I’m more inclined to believe one of those three helped brand muzzz as the death candidate.

Below is a list of suspects in order of increasingly better odds of scum affiliation. Top= good. Middle= maybe. Bottom= You don’t want to be on the bottom of this list.

Liquid_Evil- Obvious enforcer. Or obvious mayor. Obviously something obvious.

muzzz- Dead. Cold. Alone. He’s sitting at his computer reading these posts with a touch of dissatisfaction that he died so early, but also with a warmth in his heart that makes him glad that it was he who died instead of his grand and bosom buddy, Liquid. Light some incense and watch me work, dear friend. Just watch me work.

Cygnus- His named suspects include liq, w_m and fbz (and presumably colorlessgreen since he questioned his defensiveness, though he didn’t explicitly state it). He appears to be his usual stat-loving self in his lone post and argues that his suspects are there because of past rounds. Nothing too out of the ordinary, but because of how his calculating mind works, he deserves special scrutiny.

friedbananazzzz- Pigeonholes me as an accuser and asks a couple of questions of w_m and jr in his first foray into the thread. Names dash a suspect based on noodle’s big/flashy word argument.

Serdash- One post with some shenanigan words. Since mafia usually avoid shenanigan words, he’s probably kosher. Emphasis on ‘probably’. Also emphasis on ‘kosher’.

Water_Moon- Not many posts from her yet. Odd since this is her site and I was expecting her to be one of the first to comment. Her intro into this thread sees a quick jab at my expense and clears up some apparent jrlafrance name confusion.

jrlafrance- Appearing confused at my style of play and names me a potential suspect. That could be genuine since we haven’t played many games together (if any). It also may not be genuine because, hey, this is a mafia game. Probably the most prolific poster thus far on day 1 with at least one of them being purely non-content. However, he said that I accused people without “ANY information.” To presume I have no information would mean that he would have to know that I’m a plain townie and had no info outside the knowledge of my own role. To know that I am just a plain townie means that he has investigated me. Since I’m not a plain townie (or am I?), he’s lying, or at the very least, pretending to be a role he is not. Or maybe I just read too much into it and that wasn't how he meant it at all.

noodle- He names serdash a suspect for his “use of big words” in his first post. What he doesn’t do is respond to my earlier request that he and I vote similarly against colorlessgreen. He either didn’t read that part of my post or read it and thought better of commenting on it in the hopes that I wouldn’t pursue it. He addresses it after I bring it up again in a second post and says that he’s not on board with lynching colorlessgreen at the moment. Hassling him for a suspect for several posts and he finally commits to naming himself.

Colorless Green- There’s so much mafiaesqueness (copyrights on that word) spilling out of his posts even before he posts, that we shouldn’t hesitate to hollow out his head in the hopes of learning his gruesome secrets.

Thoughts on this suspect list or should we just kill colorlessgreen and noodle to win the game quickly?

[jrlafrance]

Sept 8, 2008 16:12:12 GMT -5 Liquid Evil said:

Why would others think that Noodle and I are suspicious?

By your own actions, obviously!

water_moon said:

jrfrance (who I didn't realize until now when there's no avatar to id anyone properly, is actully jr-la, not jarl) is making a little too much sense, but then he's not LE who tries to think he's making sense but really isn't....

Who referred to me as jarl? or jr-la? I've never been accused of making too much sense, but rather just enough sense to make sense.

[Noodle]

Hey, I'm just having fun, Liquid_Evil. I don't take these things too seriously unless there's money involved. I'm playing for fun, afterall.

[Liquid Evil]

Me too, Noodle. Me too.

[jrlafrance]

Sept 8, 2008 16:39:02 GMT -5 Liquid Evil said:

jrlafrance- Appearing confused at my style of play and names me a potential suspect. That could be genuine since we haven’t played many games together (if any). It also may not be genuine because, hey, this is a mafia game. Probably the most prolific poster thus far on day 1 with at least one of them being purely non-content. However, he said that I accused people without “ANY information.” To presume I have no information would mean that he would have to know that I’m a plain townie and had no info outside the knowledge of my own role. To know that I am just a plain townie means that he has investigated me. Since I’m not a plain townie (or am I?), he’s lying, or at the very least, pretending to be a role he is not. Or maybe I just read too much into it and that wasn't how he meant it at all.

I'm not sure I like the tone you're taking LE! First off, you point fingers at several people, now it appears you are back-peddling, trying to cover your arse! If you're gonna make accusations, stick behind them, or people WILL suspect you.
Nextly, since you were the first poster, unless you are Mafia, you would have no information available to you to accuse anyone, much less three people!
If you're just creating trouble, perhaps a pardon is in order?

[jrlafrance]

Sept 8, 2008 17:08:34 GMT -5 Liquid Evil said:

Me too, Noodle. Me too.

Aren't we all having fun?

[Noodle]

Sept 8, 2008 17:18:51 GMT -5 jrlafrance said:

Aren't we all having fun?

Serdash isn't, what with having to look up all those big words and stuff.

[water_moon]

@liquid: you're smart, just not a smart as you think, bunny boy.

You always strike me as mafia, or I'd be namng you & cygie (seriosly, you agree with him becasue he names people on your list that haven't posted at the time of accusation?) as baddies. But don't think I belive the role claim, you've tried that bait and switch a few too many times. As for not posting right away, this may be my site, but twilight/morning are about the same time I have to do dinner, with a toddler under foot, before getting said toddler ready for bed.

jrlafrance, liquid called you "jr" (pronounced junior) which made me realize it was jrla not, "jarl" which is how I always pronounced it in my head.

@all, cookies can be had in the bakery

[friedbananazzzz]

[glow=red,2,300]Yay, cookies![/glow]

Sept 8, 2008 16:39:02 GMT -5 Liquid Evil said:

friedbananazzzz- Pigeonholes me as an accuser

Wait, are you denying that you consistently accuse people? I thought that you enjoyed it?

Am I completely missing something on Cygnus though? Liq says he deserves special scrutiny, and w_m says that she'd name him as a baddie.

[Nazdakka]

24 hours into day 1.

No votes to record.

[colorlessgreen]

Alright, I'm home from work. I (kinda) miss my old job where I was able to screw around on the forums and get paid for it, especially since I get home from work after midnight, so I'll be making my final vote before going to bed tonight (which will occur in maybe three and a half hours). Expect a new post containing my vote around then, and potentially another post between now and then if I think of more things to say after unwinding a bit. On to the game:

I'll be addressing people in the order they're listed in the original post. I'm also composing this in notepad so I don't accidentally try to switch pages and lose the post, since it's going to be long. So, quotes are copy/pasted. The overall rating I'm attaching to people is my general sense of their mafiosity on a scale of one to five (five being suspicious, one being townie).

Water_Moon: I'm also a bit concerned by how long it took her to show up, what with this being her forum and all. Her three posts consist of something that currently looks relatively nonsensical where she supports jrla and says liq doesn't make sense. Supporting jrla (see below) is basically saying nothing, other than liq talks too much. She then goes on to state that if she were mafia, she'd do something completely different than what they did (which is precisely the same thing as shouting "I'm a townie!"), but then projects obviously faulty logic onto the night one kill decision. As liq points out, "the mafia would have no reason to believe he was a power role because he didn't have the chance to post anything to blow his own cover." This is, to put it bluntly, completely obvious. Someone posting completely obvious faulty logic is always extremely suspicious. In the interest of completeness, the third post doesn't strike me as particularly suspicious or particularly townie. Overall rating: 4.

Liquid_Evil: Despite his continuing to bark at me, I still don't feel the need to be defensive. As has been pointed out, he enjoys doing this and does it frequently. The one thing I do want to point out, though, is that he cites my behavior in past games. I've played one previous game, where I was murdered on night two. Has some good things to say, but that doesn't really mean anything one way or another. The suspicions I have are based on the early, (relatively) undefended accusations and the discrepancy over my participation in past games. Unfortunately, he's the only target of (one of) my most suspicious people, and one of two targets of the other, which makes me consider him lower down the list. Overall rating: ~2.

jrlafrance: He has several posts, but has said absolutely nothing that wasn't either spam or "liq is loud", which might as well be spam. This looks to me like he's trying to not be noticed (by not posting anything remotely confrontational or controversial), while at the same time trying to post enough to not get harassed for not posting. This, to me, is extremely suspicious. Overall rating: 5.

cygnus: Early poster. Puts up some math, not really useful math unfortunately (looks pretty much like filler to me). Mentions suspicions of liq, w_m, and fbz based on the night one kill, but doesn't cite sources. Hasn't said anything since the early filler posts, though he mentioned some time zone issues (with which I completely sympathize), so there's hopefully more to come. Not too much of a feel yet, really. Overall rating: 2.

noodle: The odds of both noodle and liq being mafia are vanishingly small in my opinion, however I don't really think liq is mafia, so that doesn't really help noodle. Mentions suspicions of dash based on his rather opulent use of language, but that's just dash, and noodle's been around long enough to know that. There's other reasons to be suspicious of dash (see below), but this isn't one. As I'm convinced that noodle should know dash's personality, this looks like something between misdirection and deliberately faulty logic. The rest of the posts are nonsensical (another mafia tell - see jrla). Overall rating: 5.

friedbanazz: Exactly two posts. First one says nothing (liq is loud, dash has a thesaurus). Second one involves poking liq with a stick, and questioning cygnus. Neither post contains anything substantive (he isn't questioning cygnus directly, he's questioning the people who were questioning cygnus). This currently looks like trying to fly under the radar with a low post count and trying to speak enough nonsense to avoid the people who always target the lowest post count. Suspicious currently. Overall rating: 4.

muzzz: Dead. Overall rating: 1.

Serdash: I'm fairly certain he's targeting me because I slap him every time I log on to IRC. The post says basically nothing in a very verbose way. This, in and of itself, isn't really suspicious, it's just dash being dash. The suspicious thing is that he has only one post, which said nothing. The fact that I think he's currently the lowest post count mitigates this a bit, because I think it's relatively well established that the lowest post count attracts attention, and therefore the mafia tend to stick to the bottom half, but not the absolute bottom. Mildly suspicious at the moment, could swing either way if he opens his mouth. Overall rating: 3.


That post took over an hour to write (which I did effectively stream of consciousness without much backtracking), and I wouldn't be that surprised if I forgot something/misstated something/etc, so there might be a revision coming up. To summarize, my two most suspicious people at the moment would have to be noodle and jrla. Not sure which I'm going to vote for yet, but I'll be making up my mind in the next two and a half hours or so.


-CG

[colorlessgreen]

After reviewing my post a couple times, I have a couple addendums:

I get home from work after midnight game time (in case this wasn't obvious).

W_M being first on the list caused me to misjudge how suspicious I was of her as related to the other players. Her overall rating is a 5, and she is also a candidate for my vote this evening, because in addition to the fly-under-the-radar-but-post-enough-to-not-be-the-quietest, she has the very obviously faulty logic. Potentially the front-runner.

-CG

[cygnus]

This is so much nicer than wading through the mountain of posts that is day 1 on the SPF games.

jrlafrance is either innocent as a baby or playing a damnation good game. Townie.

serdash's non-post is a little suspicious. It's only thing to keep quiet when 20-odd people are lunging at each other's throats on day 1, and quite another to stay silent when the game is going to last 3 days, tops. Possibly townie, but I definitely want to hear more from him before I make up my mind.

water_moon has been her usual self, including ignoring all of probability theory when it comes to muzzz' identity. If she had offed muzzz, she wouldn't have brought it up. Probably townie, but I'll stay on alert, thank you.

liquid_evil is so obviously trying to be his usual self, throwing accusations around. But unlike his normal behavior, he seems more interested in appearing to be creating activity rather than actually putting pressure on someone. He's called for voting for CG without actually going hard at him and has been trying a bit to get noodle to talk, but nothing beyond that. I say mafia.

colorless_green is almost certainly mafia if liq is mafia. If liq's townie ... I don't know. I don't like his response to liq's accusation, it seems a little staged.

friedbananazzz could be mafia. It's hard to tell anything from the couple of posts he's made, but muzzz is dead, after all.

noodle high NCP content. Probably townie, but again, I'm not sure.

vote liquid_evil

About time the voting started

[cygnus]

Uh, my post was written before I saw CG's lengthy post (preview on this forum doesn't show you existing posts) It doesn't change anything.

My last post for the day will be ~3-4 hours from now, at which point my vote will be set in stone.

[Liquid Evil]

Sept 8, 2008 21:38:19 GMT -5 cygnus said:

liquid_evil is so obviously trying to be his usual self, throwing accusations around.

He sure is. Almost uncanny how true to his usual self he actually appears...

I'll get behind a jrlafrance or water_moon vote. I don't really think colorlessgreen or noodle are scum. Cygnus gets watched for the Liq vote.