|
Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 27, 2009 16:04:58 GMT -5
Would it be more ridiculously suicidal to repeat a successful tactic (with the ability to play glass-in-front-of-me and claim exactly what you're claiming for him), or to suddenly forget all mafia-playing experience and fail to read up on the rules (particularly when he definitely knew to do it last game, which IIRC had as many rules changes as this one did)?
By the way, I don't generally feel the need to explicitly state "___ is suspicious" when I make a post that is pretty blatantly outlining why I think they're suspicious.
-CG
|
|
|
Post by water_moon on Jun 27, 2009 16:14:32 GMT -5
So, I gave up and am just going to go with my gut and assume that more often than not, the first day lynch is town killing town. Sluggard. I've actully taken the time to check stats on past rounds in the past but decided that the data gathered is a bit too meta data (read: not sutable for submission), and frankly, this time around it's not as likly to hold up with 50% different players *shrug* But to back Bob up, yes we usally end up lynching a townie day one, rather than a mafia in cases with only one standard cop. 1 Sorry, soy, the "no lynchers" are usually townies. 21 Not counting the rounds where everyone is a one night cop, cop results are publicly posted, RL tells/meta data/ other banned here info used. 3OF COURSE we're going to hit more townies on the first day if there are more townies than mafia, the better question would be do we hit the mafia or the townies at a greater per capita rate. 2 In cases of begining with day one or no night kill night one. 33 Now, we come to the crux of the point, HISTORICLLY only works if the history is applied to the same species/group of people/ situation/etc. and is ALWAYS conditional. An Evil Twin is always Seperated At Birth, unless it's being lampshaded.... *looks around* I see eleven new residents. We ain't in Kanasas any more, SPFers. or are we Homies now? how's that ring? too hip pop? Fact is, the mafia wants to lynch some one. It saves them time and effort. Fact is, only way the town will win is by lynching (so long as it's not the pair of idiots.) Now, sitting there and saying "I'm going to watch the no lynchers" is just grandstanding *glares at Kahlan, Merlin*. It's about as useful (and indicative) as a politician's retoric on the sanctity of marriage. By the same token, no lynching, as nice and humane as it may be, just Isn't A Good Idea.
|
|
|
Post by water_moon on Jun 27, 2009 16:18:18 GMT -5
And leave us to draw our own conclusions. What's wrong with that? Would you rather some one tell you what to think?
|
|
|
Post by nolecub on Jun 27, 2009 16:35:02 GMT -5
Random thoughts about today's proceedings:
No lynch : My first reaction was "Bad idea." I tried to keep an open mind about it though and look at how it may benefit the town. I was leaning to thinking that it would be a good idea. However, the chances of the town lynching the Assassin or the War Hero on Day one are pretty slim. With that, I truly believe that we must lynch today and every day based on the information gathered.
Which leads me to:
Non contributing posters. The following is a list of all those who have posted in the thread today but have said absolutely nothing to contribute toward sniffing out mafia:
maatianna secretcowlevel slinky alterego wrayburn FIREHORSE capricasix
By nothing relevant, I mean the majority of these post were just "ice breakers" talking about the phantom NK to start the game. The only one of this list that really stands out is Firehorse. 3 posts so far, one to say good morning, one to say he likes the town going first, and one about how many VI's there are. I am currently trying to decide if this is a ploy to hide in plain sight or not.
And of course we have the non-posters:
lazarussham ludacris tornvalor calamity
Seems to me that there are a lot of peeps new to this board on these 2 lists. Either they are feeling their way around or have forgotten about the game. The reason for this is we need everyone to contribute!!! Silence and gibberish posts only aid the mafia by allowing them to blend in to the crowd.
I do realize that it is still early on day one, but we need more information in order to cast an educated vote for the day one lynch instead of picking someone out of a hat.
|
|
|
Post by ludacris on Jun 27, 2009 16:50:44 GMT -5
I agree we should usually always lynch someone when we can, but because we start during the day and nothing happened there isn't much to go on.
This will sound unproductive, but I have no idea who to lynch. Random to get it starting won't work either because we can't unvote. I'll do as most others will and just see what happens and cast my vote near the end of the day.
|
|
Kahlan
Junior Member
Posts: 57
|
Post by Kahlan on Jun 27, 2009 17:14:13 GMT -5
I have not played a game where there was the option of "no-lynch". I also don't see the value in that at the beginning of a game. The game has to start somewhere..... In my experience, Day One lynch votes can be quite revealing later in the game. I also am unsure what Water_Moon was trying to say, because it appeared to be very artfully crafted double speak, tbqh. Much like our politicians words.... Being new to a forum, not knowing the players (including the ones that I probably do know!) is a little daunting. It is not conducive to just jumping right on in there with something er... meaningful. Hopefully, everyone is aware that the game has started and we'll have more posts as the day progresses towards the lynch deadline. No one person is really standing out to me at the moment, so, I do not know who I will vote for currently. Keeping in mind the VI role, I do find it interesting that someone has already voted!
|
|
|
Post by soylentred on Jun 27, 2009 17:30:48 GMT -5
Sorry, soy, the "no lynchers" are usually townies. 2Fact is, the mafia wants to lynch some one. It saves them time and effort. Fact is, only way the town will win is by lynching (so long as it's not the pair of idiots.) By the same token, no lynching, as nice and humane as it may be, just Isn't A Good Idea. Exactly what I said - best way to look town is to push for no lynch and know that that hardly ever happens. Win Win. Glad you agree with me at the end. No need to apologize.
|
|
Xanth
New Member
Posts: 27
|
Post by Xanth on Jun 27, 2009 17:48:43 GMT -5
@cg - I'm sorry... Up until Jason posted the clarification that says "The vote swapping roles have been removed," (which happened after my post), I had NO IDEA they weren't still in there. There are half a billion roles, and they don't have obvious names (like "vote-swapper"). Pop quiz... Tell me all the roles in this game. Tell me which roles got removed. Don't look it up. Go. Jason's post was this: 7 mafia and 14 townies, 3 neutral would have covered the roles he laid out. All of them. Why on Earth would I assume that the vote-swappers had been removed? Did I miss a post somewhere in this thread where Jason relented and said, "Yeah, you're right, the vote-manipulators are pretty overpowered." No, I did not. Also, playing dumb to the rules was a specific ploy to make me seem innocent because of the role reveals. If I didn't know the lynches were role revealed, I was hoping people would then assume I didn't know that NK roles were revealed to mafia, which would mean I wasn't mafia. What would I gain in this scenario? The ironic thing is that I was just about to post and say "Oh, well if those roles were removed, a no lynch suddenly becomes an option." But it's a strategy you really have to commit to. With 7 mafia, I don't think it's something you can risk. At some point, you're going to need to get lucky. If it were 3 mafia, or maybe even 4 (as in a smaller game, not as in shifted odds), I usually trust my instincts more than luck. But I'm not 7/7 good. Specifically for tonight, a no lynch doesn't gain us anything. If we say "Let's see who they kill!" the obvious response is for the mafia to find the most random person they can think of... Some new player that we know nothing about, or something like that. Stalling only works when an extra day or two really helps the cop, and when the doctor has a real shot at making a save.
|
|
|
Post by bobthewarrior on Jun 27, 2009 18:00:53 GMT -5
Powerroles can do their thing tonight whether we lynch or not. Unless we lynch them.... But most importantly, if the town isn't willing to risk lynching, the mafia win automatically! Absolutely true, but as W_M has done some research (more than my lazy butt was willing to do) and concurs that the day 1 lynch is typically townie, I feel safer getting some conversation going, seeing who the mafia is scared of, and making a better informed decision on Day 2. @w_M I know I took your information out of context above, and that other factors are very much into play in the "day 1 is typically a townie" lynch.@bob - The hidden assumption behind your post is that the town is by definition not clever enough to deduce being lead astray or not. I find this a dangerous assumption to make. If that was the case, most games with mafia vs town with experienced players would result in a townloss, but my experience tells me otherwise. Indeed. It is a dangerous assumption to make, and I did not make it. If you deduced that I thought the town was not smart enough, you were wrong. I do believe the town is smart enough, and the fact that most games do not result in a townloss proves it. Lynching provides information, information that will be valuable later on in pattern and posting analysis. By going for a no lynch, you actually block the town from the chance to use that information. When push comes to shove, as you put it, that information might provide clues. Yes lynching does provide the town with information (when roles are revealed) and yes I do block that information for this day. I block that information to give the more powerful townies breathing room and for the mafia to choose who is dangerous and who isn't, not the uninformed and isolated townies. I see this as a more than fair trade, and therefore have cast my vote. I would obviously like to have both the information a lynch provides for the town and to give our power roles breathing room, but a tradeoff must be made. Conversation can give us nearly as much information later in the game, with much less risk of townie death. I find what you say both demoralizing and alarming, I'm not sure what to say about that, but felt a comment necessary. What is demoralizing about wanting to not accidentally kill our power roles? (not a rhetorical question). What is alarming about playing it safe for one night when we townies far outnumber the mafia. I'm not saying townies are expendable, but I'm confident we've handicapped ourselves in past games by accidentally killing ourselves in the first few days. How long was the last game here, three days? Three townie lynches started by townies. and rest assured, I'll keep my eye on you. I would expect nothing less. And the same to you.
|
|
slinky
Junior Member
Posts: 64
|
Post by slinky on Jun 27, 2009 18:24:44 GMT -5
I really don't think we should go with a no-lynch path here. Yes, we have civvies (townies) who can do investigations at night to try and help us out with future lynches. But, the civvies main power as a group is their ability to lynch. By not using this power, you're taking away from the game. There is the potential to figure out who some people might be from their voting. Voting records are a great tool. Plus, if you aren't voting, you're probably not going to discuss as much. Why not post, discuss, vote, and give our civvie power roles something to work with tonight? Other wise, they are just going to be picking at random, which doesn't help them. In the worst case scenario where we do lynch a power civvie role, games have been won by civvies where this has happened before. Also, for whomever created the list of "non contributors", seriously? The game started how many hours ago? I'm not sure what timezone you're in, but it doesn't really matter. I'm not tied to my computer. I check in at certain times of the day which will generally be the same throughout the game. If a discussion goes on while I'm not here, I will certainly respond to it when I do check in. It isn't fair to fault me for not responding within a couple of hours. Meh, now I just feel like ranting, so instead of fleshing out the first paragraph with more stuff like i planned, I fear it would just turn into a rant. I'll leave it and do another check-in later. No, I don't know when, so I can't schedule it with you.
|
|
|
Post by goltar on Jun 27, 2009 18:35:19 GMT -5
Realistically, we're not going to get a no-lynch. Not today, as their are too many players who want a lynch, and as stated, a bad lynch is equivalent to a free mafia kill.
However, in this round, there is an advantage (as compared to more typical rule variants) to lynching. This lies in the plain townie role. With less people to guess from, especially if some of those are plain townies, then it becomes easier to complete the "list" of remaining plain townies. That townie then has a large quantity of useful knowledge (though the easier it is to get that knowledge, the less useful it becomes, so there is a counter-point).
In short, losing a plain townie is less of a problem than in a normal game.
And muzzz, I think you're missing the point of what I'm saying. The point is that until we have information making things less random, all we have to go on is guesses at the randomization of the roles. So yes, at this point in the game, theories based on that are useful, especially with no night 1.
Now, how do we get more information at this point? Posts. Specifically, we do have an advantage in that the mafia has not had a chance to develop any strategy, or even have any serious communication beyond establishing who is who. So there is a chance that at least some are attempting to communicate in thread. Now, for the tedious task of determining who that could be. Don't expect much for a while from me.
|
|
|
Post by nolecub on Jun 27, 2009 18:35:25 GMT -5
Is it really that easy to push your buttons?
|
|
|
Post by muzzz on Jun 27, 2009 19:52:54 GMT -5
@nole & Bob: why on earth would we lynch a townie powerrole? @bob: how is your vote giving the townie powerroles more breathing room? slinky: "a couple of hours"? It's been 23... goltar: those theories are based on a false assumption. That a game of mafia is anywhere near what statistics would predict. Having 14/24 townies does not mean that we have a 14/24 chance of lynching a townie today. The same goes for most other statistics. They are misleading, and should be handled with the utmost care.
|
|
|
Post by FIREHORSE on Jun 27, 2009 19:55:12 GMT -5
I am not in favour of a no lynch. This makes no sense to me and we may as well began the game on a night as usual with an NK.
Here we are given a chance to kill a mafia first.
Here are the stats: If we do not lynch:
First person killed:
Town 100% (Unless mafia kills their own) Mafia 0%
If we lynch:
I have not computed the math but we have roughly a 30% chance of hitting a mafia.
The number is greater than zero so a lynch helps us more.
|
|
|
Post by wrayburn on Jun 27, 2009 20:08:57 GMT -5
Well I see I'm on a list of non-contributors. Sorry, just have not had time to sort through everything yet. I'm here, honest. Having said that, I now need to go back and read through everything carefully and then perhaps I will share my thoughts. If I have any worth sharing that is.
|
|