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Post by bobthewarrior on Dec 5, 2008 21:32:27 GMT -5
unvote: Liquid Evil
Ok. I believe you. I believe jrlafrance really is the doctor and that Liquid is most likely a townie.
BTW, did they pass out Bob blinders before the start of this game? I was my usual quiet self the first day, but I've said more this game than I did the last, probably more than I've said the last two or three games combined. That doesn't hold a candle to the amount of posts being made by others, but c'mon!
So, seeing as I said I believe jrlafrance and Liquid for now, Liquid is making some sense. If we can be certain that jrlafrance is the doctor, that means there are five unknown townies and five unknown mafia. 50:50 isn't bad odds. If we further assume that, since he's helping the town with his logic, Liquid is a townie, we're at four townies to five mafia.
Each individual townie can safely rule out themself, so now it's three townies and five mafia.
This isn't as difficult as it looks. If we can come to a concensus (sp?) about who has the greatest probability of being townie, we can lynch anyone who is not in that category and probably find a mafia.
My personal townie list consists of (in no paticular order): 1) Myself 2) jrlafrance 3) Liquid 4) Sint 5) Skiffz
So, if my list is right, I have only to decide one more person is a townie, then I can vote for anyone else not on my townie list, and hit a mafia.
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Dec 5, 2008 23:01:31 GMT -5
unvote: Liquid EvilLiquid, assuming for a moment we take your claim at face value and that you are indeed a vanilla townie, who do you suspect most strongly as mafia? Ask and you shall receive. These 3 look the most suspicious to me. (But take this list with a grain of salt because we've seen how in tune my mafia radar was this game...this is also half the reason why I'd like to vote with someone else, so I wouldn't have to take all the blame for another wrong selection). Still, I've tried to provide reasons for my suspicions. Nolecub- Got away from a lynch but was quick to make it back onto everyone’s townie lists. Bassano is sure he’s townie, but that hurts his case more than helps it imo. I’ve voiced my suspicions on him previously, but he’s probably a distant 3rd to these guys. Bassano- A complete mystery to me. I can’t tell if he’s using broken English as a crutch or if it’s genuine (but I will say that I don’t recall reading his posts at the SPF and thinking that he was hard to understand). I don’t know whether to stick him in my inactive pile, my non-content pile or my wave-maker(!) pile since he looks to be taunting jrlafrance today (for what purpose I haven’t a clue) and most fits the criteria of the person that is playing ignorant. Seriously, there’s always one in these games and that should be doubly true for this one with Jason’s wild codes. He's a self-proclaimed "noobie" and has definitely wanted to appear as if he's in the dark. He also only sheepishly makes his way to the voting booth after several others have already voiced their opinions. Ricrestoni- Completely unbelievable banter with goltar. If you look at the first day of posts and the vote history (go back and check), he branded both goltar and myself as mafia *before* we cast our votes for w_m for no real reasons cited outside of gut feeling, but then went ahead and ignored his own suspicion list and voted for jrlafrance (someone who had absolutely no chance of being lynched). If that doesn’t leave you scratching your head, he’s been dogging both goltar (someone who I had on my 90% townie list) and I since Day 1 but has cited no real evidence to link us. Instead of informative posts, he’s just gotten louder and more desperate. It’s as if he was instructed by a fellow Mafioso to bring down one of us so each day he’ll squawk and parrot his previous days’ posts hoping someone else will start the trains while he votes elsewhere. He grew impatient with that strategy and now is trying to start the wagons. Factor in his appearance into this thread with that rehearsed looking ego drivel and the NK starts making more sense.
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Post by Noodle on Dec 5, 2008 23:20:30 GMT -5
It seems very possible at this point that both Goltar and Ricrestoni are mafia, and they staged their little feud to make us think that they are not partnered up, with the other mafia players splitting their votes to ensure neither actually got killed. Or that if one got killed, the other would be considered a townie no matter what because of the feud.
What are your thoughts on that possibility, LE? Others? Ricrestoni? Goltar?
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Dec 5, 2008 23:30:46 GMT -5
I think it has merit and wouldn't have to stretch my imagination too much to see it. I remember someone (nolecub maybe?) from a previous mafia game cautioning the town against "those that fight for no reason are closer than they appear."
You have to be careful about labeling people mafia based on perceived feuds though. You and Bob got into a little scrape yesterday so that same logic could be used against one or both of you.
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Post by Nac Runo on Dec 6, 2008 3:29:30 GMT -5
I do not know if it is just me but, reading the posts here just gets me more confused without giving much of a direction. That can only mean we are playing into the mafia's hand.
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About Jrlafrance being the doc, its good to see he came forward with that claim as it might have been too late otherwise. I was almost certain of that fact since he started dropping hints on day 1. And since his first hint, i have always put him on my "not suspected list" without exception.
I do not see how others missed those hints because they were not only brought up by Liq a couple days ago, goltar has also directly asked jrlafrance about those hints on day 2 or 3; and then jrlafrance answered to underline the first hint he has dropped himself.
I was almost sure of his role yet constant references to that bothered me. Why would a townie go up and drop obvious hints about the doc? If it were just a request to role claim it can be understood. But just dropping hints so that you can later say you dropped them is just foul play imo.
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Because of the reasons i said above, goltar seems more townie to me now than he was when i last posted. He never brought up the fact that he was aware of Jr's role although i am pretty certain he knew. And again because of the above reasons, Liq and Noodle seems more suspicious to me. Liq for using the information to clean himself, Noodle for referring to that 'proof' again and again.
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Not to repeat the mistake i did yesterday, i will come clean with my vote.
Vote: Nolecub
I do not understand how he became on everyone's trusted list all of a sudden. The way he acted yesterday was definitely mafia like imo. And today he is just enjoying the fact that he suddenly become trusted, posting a reply every two-three posts just to show he is around, and accomplishing not to help the town in any of his posts. I have other suspects for sure, but today needs a mafia lynch if we want to keep our hope of winning, and Nole is the safest target for that imo.
Also about bassano, i didn't put him there but he was very near to my not suspected list so far. And seeing how things are going, i actually regret that. He asked for nole's lynch so much, but when he were to decide whether to lynch nole or wasp he abandoned his first target. This can be accepted since nobody can be sure of anyone, but what bother me is his conscience confessions about how he will not forgive himself if nole is indeed mafia and as a result how he wishes nole to be townie. This is just rubbish imo.
I said i have other suspects but none as likely to be mafia as nole. I have all 5 mafia players in mind actually and thinking over the names and making connections seem to make sense to me.
Nolecub BobTheWarrior Bassano Liquid_Evil Noodle
Currently we can only make one mistake and in a bad position, but one mafia lynch and a doc save will put us in a whole different level.
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sint
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Posts: 105
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Post by sint on Dec 6, 2008 9:54:28 GMT -5
[<snip> sint have been eerily silent today. Had you read my post you'd know why. I've been saying from day one that the day's end/start are troublesome and I have a busy RL. No matter though.. I'll take ''eerily silent'' since I know I've been posting more content then others. As long as you're not going for ''suspicious'' I'm fine. LE. Your game seems off. I noted the uncharacteristicness (Jesus.. is that a word?) last time, but since then you just seem to expand in the given role. You seem a lot more helpful then normal, less likely to confront and question and your readiness to appoint someone else as captain is troublesome too. Yes, I believe jrla is the doc too, I've written in my hidden messages to jason that I had a good idea back then, and of course even if jrla is playing a ridiculously well game as a mafia he is right now a good person to listen to. On the other hand I am NOT going to blindly follow him around. That's just not right. It has nothing to do with shifting guilt, weight of decision or even backing up, it has everything to do with common sense. Even if you believe jrla is to be trusted arguing and adding is always more helpful then just playing along. Not your usual self. I still can't lay my finger on ric vs goltar. I severely disagree that both are mafia.. I just can't see it happening with the timing ric attacked goltar yesterday and fierceness of both parties. I just can't get even with both of em being town either. Yes it'll probably die out and be shifted off as a quable, but there was some desperation from both sides in there. Getting ''caught'' as a townie isn't a problem. All you have to say is: ''I am townie, <censored> what you think, here's the truth and be done with it.'' Not drag it out over one and a half day. I started with these examples because LE and goltar have done something very interesting. They have voted for them self on a LYLO day. That just isn't done. No reason besides a mafia claim can justify that. Nothing. But oh my.. why 2(!!!) people... And yes, both of you have explained why, both of you have said it was to clarify/follow others/whatever. Common sense tells you that if you're townie you are only sure of your own role. The only person you can trust is yourself. Are you actually giving up? Sigh... I don't know... I know I have voted for myself in old games to prove to the town I was townie so a mafia could be lynched the next day or as a high-society bluff being mafia, but in both cases you can't do that in LYLO. Now what's also very interesting is that no one basically even mentioned wasp, his death, the people who voted for him or anything at all. Here's the people voting for wasp: LE nole noodle jrla goltar bass (note switched over from nole) Skiff (note: switched over from nole) Take a look at the timing of the votes (also read back trough the day), I kept LE on that list although he unvoted later on. I can understand nole since he was getting heat and even without reasoning voting wasp was a good plan whether he was town or mafia, noodle/jrla/goltar are the mid section (at least 1 mafia among those normally) but the most interesting part is bass. Not only did he vote wasp, but his vote was previously on nole therefor switching the entire lynch scene around. Nole was going for the gallows (IIRC he even said something like ''gg bye''), but suddenly bass appears out of the blue and with little reasoning (nole can wait, I would've done the same) he kills wasp. That skiff came in last to ensure no one could turn it back around is also somewhat interesting (that's why I put it there), but I'd say less then bass. Here's why, if bass actually thought nole was town and not the right person for the lynch he could've unvote (and seeing how he even said in the very same post how he thought ric was suspicious, vote ric) but not vote wasp, trying to steer for a no-lynch. I did the very same when I posted and both were equal in vote numbers by NOT voting. Yet bass decided that nole ''feeling townie'' was good enough reason to lynch wasp of whom he said ''not convinced tat waspinator is mafia and even he even you could be 2 townie''. Which is ridiculous! If you don't want to lynch someone who you think is townie then that's fine. But why lynch someone else who you think might just as well be townie instead? This is quite a turn around, I've been reading your posts and seeing them as townie, shaking off remarks others have made for you being mafia, but this move is not only dangerous (seeing in what trouble we are now) but also anti-town. Hm.. after writing that I can't say skiff was there to secure the lynch, working together with bass.. but at least skiff is taking a step back on my trust ladder. On to others before I forget. Noodle, you seem to have stepped up and make decent posts. Something is bugging me about your posts, but I can't go anywhere with it, so I'll just peg you as townie for today ;D Seriously though dunno what it is.. maybe taking the conspiracy theory a bit too far in your last post. I almost forgot about nac. Throughout the game I've had no real suspicion in your way. Your posts are decent and helpful enough, but nothing over the top. If you're mafia you're playing well. If you're townie, same. Either way, you're not someone we should go after today. Bob, erf.. dunno. Take a look at your last post. You're not helping at all. All you're saying is who you're not going to vote for. Nothing to add to the discussions going and nothing to throw suspicion or try to lure something/someone out to see what's going on. You're basically saying: ''gee.. here's a list which'll do nothing, but it's a list and I can vote anyone outside of these people. We'll see what happens!'' I just can't shake off a bad vibe out of your post even though when I read between the lines I can see something that says you're genuinly (sp?) trying to help. Just can't nail it either way. Mafia list. Bass Nole goltar or ric LE (maybe) Skiff (less likely) Probably in that order right now too. vote bassanoYes I am going to vote. I've seen where not voting left me in the couple of days and even though this vote differs from the voting subjects right now I think it'll do more good by throwing it out there then keeping it in. I'm going away for about an hour or two, but after that I've got time until the end of the day, so if I don't get support I will vote along the lines of other to keep the mafia from trying to spread out the voting too much or lynchtrain someone at the last second. /sigh.. my post are getting longer and longer.
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Post by goltar on Dec 6, 2008 10:02:06 GMT -5
@nole - I just now noticed your question. Yes, there could be a mafia role that alters the lynch results. Ray never specified WHAT the mafia role's powers to be (at least, not to us, hopefully they know their own ability). So it is entirely reasonable that one of our lynches could be wrong. We could have lynched two mafia by now. I doubt merlin was switched, simply because of numbers. If he was really a townie (assuming they can only switch one result), then we're at 5:6 right now and we've already lost, assuming the mafia haven't killed some of their own. I'm going to assume the information we have is correct, as there are too many possibilities if I include such a role. If I'm incorrect in this assumption, we've likely lost anyway.
Ok, the end of the day is getting closer. Time to get rid of that stupid vote on myself.
Unvote: goltar
And now, down to the business of finding the mafia. With jrla finally admitting his role (and assuming it to be the truth, it does makes sense), then back to my original idea around his hinting. That puts my mafia suspicion list at skiff, bassano, ric, bob, nole, and noodle. Of those, I'm less convinced of ric and noodle. I'm most concerned about bassano. His last minute vote switch yesterday is really bothering me. By doing that, he spared nolecub and lynched wasp (who showed townie).
Note on preview: It looks like sint has some of the same thoughts. I'll consider that a good thing.
Vote: bassano
I'm hoping to be back near the end of the day, in case something comes up needing me to switch my vote. But I'm going to be decorating the house today, so I'm not going to count on it. I might have a bit more to say this morning though, for now I'm the only one awake.
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Post by goltar on Dec 6, 2008 10:04:03 GMT -5
And I immediately have something else to say. I forgot to explain why I voted for myself. Since I know I'm townie, and the mafia knows I'm townie, they know that voting for me would net them the win. Therefore, I was hoping to trap a few into voting for me. Noodle was the only one to vote for me. That helps confirm having him on my suspicious list, but bassano is setting off more alarms at the moment.
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sint
Full Member
Posts: 105
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Post by sint on Dec 6, 2008 10:05:41 GMT -5
Actually you know what, let me make that list a bit better: We have these people - Liquid Evil Bobthewarrior Goltar Nac Runo Jrlafrance Skiffcz Nolecub Noodle Bassano Ricrestoni
I'm either thinking these people are town or I think we're wasting time to trying to get one of them down (order - least suspicious to most suspicious): Jrlafrance Nac Runo Skiffcz / Noodle
Leaves this for lynchtargets (order - least suspicious to most suspicious): Bobthewarrior Liquid Evil Goltar / Ricrestoni (*note, 1 of them is likely mafia, 1 town) Nolecub Bassano
So read from bottom to top to get my suspicion list on the entire town.
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Post by nolecub on Dec 6, 2008 10:09:46 GMT -5
Lot's of college football to watch today (read:drinking) so this will most likely be my last post of the day.
A lot of options as to who to vote for today. The one feeling that I cannot shake is that mafia are the ones leading us to vote.
The ric/goltar exchange: First, I did not like the way ric was so adamant about goltar's guilt at the end of the day yesterday. Follow that up with posts from each that, too me, looked like they took a long time to prepare. Liq is right about this one, that fued was unnecessary. Both mafia in my eyes.
Bob : Starts the voting on Liq with a very solid analytical post. A couple more jump on the train, but soon just jump off. I think Bob is on the up and up here, and his target is a right one. Liq is mafia, Bob is town.
NacRuno : You almost slid by me here Nac, but it wasn't the fact that you are voting for me. I see your vote to mean that things aren't quite going the mafia's way today and a couple of your teammates are in the spotlight. Quickest was to divert that spotlight? Me of course. Again, I had you as a solid townie, but this just takes the cake.
So my 4 mafia (not too sure about #5): Ricrestoni, goltar, Liquid, NacRuno
As for the vote, well Ric started today's debate but has quietly stepped back. Goltar and Nac probably do not have the support to get lynched today, and Liq seems to have squirmed his way back into a townie status.
Therefore:
vote:ricrestoni
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Post by skiffcz on Dec 6, 2008 11:48:22 GMT -5
Er, I have one question for @liquid here, in the meanwhile of constructing bigger post .. You didn't save Bob last night, you saved yourself because I told you to in my post at day end. Bob
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Dec 6, 2008 13:09:06 GMT -5
Er, I have one question for @liquid here, in the meanwhile of constructing bigger post .. You didn't save Bob last night, you saved yourself because I told you to in my post at day end. Bob You're confused about the name? That was in reference to BobtheWarrior and jrlafrance saving him. Last night I tried to save bob. Now, you might think why bob? Same reason why the mafia NK'd zefimas. Neither has posted a whole lot, and the content of their posts hasn't been very revealing about the game thus far. So, this gives us some hope, since of course at this point I'll save myself tonight.
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Post by ricrestoni on Dec 6, 2008 13:24:18 GMT -5
OK, final analysis. And watch this carefully, might be my last post.
Here are the mafias:
LE Goltar Nolecub Bassano
Now the last one is tricky. I'll put it in probabilities. Bob 45% Noodle 25% Skiff 15% jrla 15%
I will join Sint's vote since Bassano is on my evil list. But the more Goltar and LE remain in the game, the more doomed we are.
unvote: Goltar vote: Bassano
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Post by bobthewarrior on Dec 6, 2008 13:28:45 GMT -5
It suddenly occurs to me this may be my last post of the game. I don't know if i'll have more time to post later today, and the doctor claims to have saved me last night, making me the obvious NK target tonight. Bummer. I'm going to follow Sint and Goltar: Vote BassanoI've never had a strong reading on him, and Sint's and Goltar's analysis of him seem solid. I have no idea if this is the right move, but hey, it's only a game. sint - I was writing as I was thinking in my last post. It occured to me that instead of trying to find the mafia, if I found the townies the mafia would be obvious. Is that Occam's razor?
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Post by bobthewarrior on Dec 6, 2008 13:30:12 GMT -5
@ric - so, Goltar is voting for his ally? Seems a dangerous thing to do this late in the day.
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