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Post by water_moon on Sept 14, 2008 15:50:30 GMT -5
Well at leat this wasn't the game with the baddie who showed good, I really thought noodle was it. So since he wasn't and your all going to kill me now, that means we loose. Unless the mayor is the last townie standing. Quiet simply I'm just a plain jane. I hate when people try to claim townie becuase there's normally no point to it, it doesn't really serve a purpose. Better to keep the evils guessing.
But in this case if you lynch me the town goes down.* So, here's my argument for how you can know I'm vanilla: I haven't been psycoticlly and avidly following things. I haven't taken the time to write up a report on everybody. Frankly noodle was my best guess and with that down the toilet I have nothing.
*yes, yes I know unless the mayor is still standing but he's probably bit the bullet and when the cultists killed him, they got the cop's name. I had dashy pegged as the cop. If he weren't, the cop should have taken a look at me, which means nither cyg nor jrla is the cop. Thus CG is either really a dem good cop to not have gotten panicky when liquid gave him trouble or the cop is dead.
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 14, 2008 16:34:34 GMT -5
As it wasn't noodle, the only person left I find particularly suspicious is:
vote: water_moon
Nothing I've seen so far today has changed anything for me (w_m is the most suspicious, everyone else seems fairly clean).
-CG
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Post by water_moon on Sept 14, 2008 18:28:13 GMT -5
I've read through the thread from the start. And Cygnus' love of numbers found a way to save the game.
VOTE: NO LYNCH
I know I'm clean. I know 3 of you guys are clean, and one is a cult member. A random pick puts us at a 25% chance of getting it right. But a 75% chance of losing. (33% win 67% lose if each townie knowing they're clean makes a point of not voting for themself)
Now if we're wrong there's only one night left, no more days. (We have 3 lynches to get 2 cultists) But if we go with a no lynch, one townie dies tonight, and there are 3 total tommorow morning.
That narrows the odds much more in our favor. It becomes 50/50 if both townies don't vote for themselves. After the re-read I have a suspect for the good guy category, so if he and I are left I can make a better educated guess. The same is true for you.
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Post by water_moon on Sept 14, 2008 18:33:16 GMT -5
*2 of you guys are clean
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Post by cygnus on Sept 14, 2008 19:04:22 GMT -5
That's an interesting vote, I hadn't thought about that possibility. - - - As of last night, there were five alive. At that point
jrlafrance had already indicated he wanted water_moon lynched I had indicated w_m was next on my list, but that cg was also suspect cg had dash, jrla and me on the townie list, which means he too had indicated w_m was next serdash thought w_m was clean and would have gone for one of the others.
dash, jrlafrance and I are on most people's clean lists - not likely lynch targets. Which means one of us had to be taken out. Taking out jrla or me would have left it cg 2 - wm 2. Taking out dash made it cg 1 wm 3.
The obvious possibility: cg did it to improve his chances of winning The reverse psych possibility: wm did it, to make it look as if cg did it. But if this was the case, she would have brought it to our attention by now. I waited for her to make a couple of posts today before I posted this for this, but her actions don't seem very machiavellian to me.
vote: colorless green
The pendulum swings a bit, but there's still plenty of time to reconsider.
- - - I don't think a no lynch is going to help that much. It'll be me or jrla tonight and whoever remains will have to choose between w_m and cg, with no new hard information. Might as well do that today when we can still talk to each other.
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Post by Nazdakka on Sept 15, 2008 3:14:41 GMT -5
24 hours.
Water_Moon: 1 (ColourlessGreen) No Lynch: 1 (Water_Moon) ColourlessGreen:1 (Cygnus)
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 15, 2008 10:33:24 GMT -5
W_M, can you please detail out your "theory" for me please, so I can understand it better?
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 15, 2008 11:02:58 GMT -5
I've heard W_M and cygnus proclaim their innocence, but not colorlessgreen. Does this mean anything? Not sure yet...
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Post by colorlessgreen on Sept 15, 2008 14:21:44 GMT -5
If you're wondering why I'm not shouting "I'm a townie" in every post, it's because I consider "I'm a townie" to be a completely worthless statement in this game, and in fact people who say it frequently generally read suspicious.
One of the people proclaiming their innocence (and we both know which one) is lying.
-CG
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 15, 2008 15:19:02 GMT -5
I'm glad you said this. W_M would be the spokeswoman of this, this round. If you're wondering why I'm not shouting "I'm a townie" in every post, it's because I consider "I'm a townie" to be a completely worthless statement in this game, and in fact people who say it frequently generally read suspicious. One of the people proclaiming their innocence (and we both know which one) is lying. -CG
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Post by water_moon on Sept 15, 2008 16:01:33 GMT -5
And I ususally hate it too, but I can't afford to say "okay I was wrong on noodle, go ahead and lynch me becuae I'm obivously not helping" if a townie dies we loose.
As for my theory: With 4 people if we lynch one and the cult kills one tonight we lose tommorow. But if no one dies today, and just one tonight, there are three alive to lynch tommorow. And with only 3, not 4, there's less chance to mess up. Ever watch "Who Wants to Be a Millioniare"? One of the life lines eliminated an option. That's basiclly what I'm suggesting we do. The added bonus is that the scum have to survive not slipping up another day.
Were this a real town with real people it's be too dangerous to let another person die. But this is a game, even if you "die" your team can still win. I could wait 'til the last minute and vote cg to save myself, but besides meaning I have to stay up late, I'm not sure he's dirty and I don't want to lose.
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Post by water_moon on Sept 15, 2008 16:04:49 GMT -5
actually, if you were to go back and take a look at when I was mafia, I carefully avoided saying I was a townie. The less you outright lie the less likly you are to slip up when you're trying to hide something.
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 15, 2008 16:11:28 GMT -5
Let me understand what you're saying W_M: If we guess wrong, and lynch a townie tonight, Cultist murders someone tonight, its 1-1, with both people undoubtedly voting for the other, so no lynch that day (unless that other person is the Mayor, then townies win, I believe). That night, Cultist murders the other, winning the game.
If we don't lynch, someone gets murdered tonight, its 2-1. Better odds of weeding out the Cultist. hmmm, I'll have to think on that a little more.
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 15, 2008 16:34:11 GMT -5
I'm not sure how much worth I put into "...look how I played the game last round..." kind of statement either. Nothing says you have to play the same way each and every round!
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Post by cygnus on Sept 15, 2008 22:07:26 GMT -5
It's bloody obvious at this point that cg is the cultist. Current vote tally is w_m 1, no lynch 1 and cg 1. If I was scum, I would have voted for w_m by now to secure the lynch. I had already indicated w_m was suspect, so this won't appear out of the ordinary. It is highly unlikely that cg will change his vote at this point, so voting for w_m would have secured me the win (assuming the absence of the mayor, the first to two votes wins) Same applies for jrlafrance. If he was scum, he would have voted for w_m by now, thereby securing a lynch and a win. He voted for w_m yesterday, so he could have done it without arousing suspicion. w_m could have voted for cg if she's guilty. Along with my vote, that's a lynch unless I change my vote. It's a bit risky as my vote isn't commited yet. cg is the only one who couldn't have secured a lynch thus far as none of his opponents have any votes. The fact that we don't have a lynchee today tells me he's the one. If anyone else were scum, there would have been someone with two votes already. I'm sure at this point that he's the one we are after. ------------------------- As things stand, w_m gets lynched. There are 3 targets with one vote each, and cg got his vote in first. It's about 5 hours to sunset, and I don't know if jrlafrance will get his vote in by then. So for now: unvote: colorlessgreen vote: no lynchI hope to check back later this evening to see if either jrla or w_m is prepared to vote for cg but that is contingent on my not dozing off -------------------------- A lot of that assumes the mayor is dead. If the mayor is still alive a) he's not going to reveal his role as he's going to be the tie breaker and b) the remaining cultist knows the mayor is still about. But I think muzzz was the mayor and liq the cop -- that's the best explanation I have for liq getting "lucky" with fried's lynching and liq's own murder shortly thereafter.
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