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Post by Nazdakka on Jun 11, 2009 14:10:18 GMT -5
13-hour warning.
Current votes
Jason 1 (Nolecub) Nolecub 1 (Merlin) Bob 1 (Firehorse)
To clarify: if everyone ends up on 0 votes, then I will be forced to improvise a solution - the rules as written simply don't deal with it, because it's not a situation I had anticipated when I wrote them. For the sake of simplicity, I'm ruling that if everyone ends up with 0 votes at the end of the day, nobody will be lynched that day.
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Post by nolecub on Jun 11, 2009 14:21:50 GMT -5
Xanth: you wouldn't be using some sort of Mafia Point System to help you figure out who the bad guys are would you?
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Xanth
New Member
Posts: 27
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Post by Xanth on Jun 11, 2009 14:25:25 GMT -5
What do you mean by "Mafia Point System?" It's not a term I'm familiar with.
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Post by soylentred on Jun 11, 2009 15:05:28 GMT -5
Xanth: you wouldn't be using some sort of Mafia Point System to help you figure out who the bad guys are would you? I love it - would that be the point system based on smoke or the one based on mirrors? I don't think I have seen one yet that wasn't just a way to legitmate guessing and hunches. IMHO of course.
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Post by soylentred on Jun 11, 2009 15:18:47 GMT -5
Jason pointed out that we need a correct lynch either today or tomorrow, or we lose. The games I usually play start with a few days of no-lynches. We require 50% with no ties to lynch. Here it's just the most votes... Is there a way to do a no-lynch? Like, if I vote "VOTE: No Lynch" and that gets the most votes, does that work? At 7-4, we've got a roughly 2/3 chance of lynching wrong. That means we'd have to be PERFECT tomorrow to even stay in the game. If, however, we postpone two days, that lets the cop do some work, gives the doctor a few shots at a save, and by the time we need to be perfect to win, we'll have much better info to work with. Frankly, I think it's the only thing other than "dumb luck" that will give us any sort of a chance with the odds so heavily in the mafia's favor. Thoughts? I have agreed with and been led to a new way of thinking by some of your posts but this I don't agree with. The town learns absolutely nothing by not lynching. I truly do not understand this rationale. We need to get busy and settle on someone. I am leaning towards: Merlin - I am not finding anything helpful in his posts and generally I am finding them suspicious/worrying. Noodle - I am not finding anything helpful in his posts I like to keep Fire in the game because if he is town at some point he will say something really insightful and helpful to the town and hopefully we will be paying attention when he does. Where is Water? She came out with pretty good posts at the start and not much since.
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Post by nolecub on Jun 11, 2009 15:52:22 GMT -5
What do you mean by "Mafia Point System?" It's not a term I'm familiar with. Just wondering.
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Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 11, 2009 16:24:07 GMT -5
Regarding Mafia Point Systems: I think nolecub is fishing for you being one of the previous mafia players who had a mafia point system (though which player escapes me at the moment). Regarding W_M: Her relative silence is easily explained: I haven't said anything that can be argued with recently. That aside, she strikes me as one of the least suspicious people at the moment, namely because she's argued with me exactly like that as a townie in the past. Regarding nolecub: He has struck me as quite suspicious since he first randomly voted jason (though, to be fair, the first person to start voting for people just about always seems suspicious to me). He has yet to provide any real rationale for it other than "stimulating discussion". Discussion is stimulated and he hasn't retracted it. Regarding merlin: I'm having trouble deciding if he's suspicious or if the fact that English isn't his first language is just triggering weirdness when I'm attempting to read into his posts. I'm inclined to think the latter, currently. Regarding noodle: He definitely appears to be attempting to stay under the radar. At this time, that isn't enough for me to finger him as a top-probability mafioso, but time will tell. Regarding other people: I have thoughts on other people, but I'm at work and can't currently be bothered to go back through the entire thread for a monster post at this time (which is why just about every response in here is related to a post that's on the last page). More commentary will come later if the time to do so presents itself. Vote: NolecubThat vote may change later as the evening progresses, but I'm not sure what the rest of my day is going to look like in terms of internet access, and the day/night switch is at a totally useless time in this timezone, so I want to make sure that I at least get to count a point against one of my top contenders if I fail to make it back later. -CG
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Post by nolecub on Jun 11, 2009 16:49:09 GMT -5
Jason also has not contributed anything to make me take the vote off him either.
My suspect list in no particular order:
Jason - I voted for him, of course I think he is mafia. I did not like the way the first post of the game said that we MUST lynch correct today. Too easy for the mafia to get a lynch train going on anyone they can frame day one.
Firehorse - Slyly excused Jason because he wants to keep him around a bit longer. Why exactly? A non contributor hurts the town.
Soylentred - Did the same thing with Firehorse. Also says that Merlin and Noodle are not helping. ( I agree with the Noodle part, but his gameplay has not changed yet)
Merlin/WaterMoon/Goltar - Always strikes me as suspicious when 2 players carry on conversation mid game that really amounts to nothing.
Probably my last post for the night, so should I pass, listen to the whistle coming toward you and pay attention to those on the caboose.
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Post by merlin on Jun 11, 2009 17:07:11 GMT -5
It seems I failed to keep a couple of posts in account just when the new day started, my apologies for that to Noodle, nolecub and Jason, each of whom was one of the posters.
I'll adress the new posts in my suspect list below. Mind you, it's not exactly cast in iron here. But any information is good information I say, and these posts are helpful, at least, that's my general impression.
Goltar - He gives me a fairly good vibe, but he's been quiet for a while now. He has made a few useful posts, and has asked some questions. He has also promised more insights and his suspicions later today, something I'd be interested to read.
Soylentred - I'm not really liking her posts all that much. There is one fairly useful post, but other then that, the thing I notice most is that the poster is trying to suck up to water_moon. Also, in the last post, the statement - "I'd like to keep Fire in the game because if he is town at some point he'll say something really insightful and helpful." rings alarm bells. Suspicious
Nolecub - He hasn't contributed much, but this apparently fits in with his day 1 posting behavior. I like how his very first post was started with asking questions. I don't like the unexplained vote for jason, but I can appreciate that he apparently did so in order to bring discussion back to lynch targets. It was good that he picked up Fire's comment, but I think he does read too much into it. I am not sure how to label him, and there are other persons more suspicious to me, so: unvote:Nolecub
Water_Moon - A fair amount of useful posts, interspersed with some oblique general wisdoms which sound good, but aren't all that helpful ( 'It is far more important to know your own intellegence, for it is when you miscalculate this that you blind yourself to the possiblities.') She hasn't posted for a while, so I expect some more content before day's end. I get a good vibe from her so far (but I have a poor trackrecord in reading her!) Noodle - Even though I missed one of his posts, he has still posted little with almost no content. And people who keep a low profile are suspicious in a game where the town has a low margin of error. Suspicious.
BobtheWarrior - Just the one post, but it is a somewhat useful one, which puts him above Noodle in my book. He is very cautious in drawing any sort of conclusion however, which makes this a weak suspicion/analasys list. Feel free to be a bit more outspoken! He points out something suspicious in Jason's post, and admits to having a general bad vibe from me, accredited to my post behavior. That's the most suspicion he has in that post. Bob can do better, and this marks him as suspicious in my book. FIREHORSE - Two posts, one rather inconsequential, as I mentioned earlier, the other with some oddities in them. For one,as nolecub mentioned, he seems to want to divert votes away from Jason purely on the basis that he would like to see more of him, that's somewhat suspicious (but I think it's an honest opinion). And I for one feel that it's not prudent to leave heavy posters alone, since they are likely to be the ones who exert the most influence. However, it explains his vote, which I find reasonable.
Xanth - Some very good insights IMHO. A very lengthy first post, with a lot of ideas, I think he was pretty spot on with most of the points he made. But the follow up posts, in which he advocates a no-lynch policy, seems rather foolish. Others have already commented on this, but I'd like to add that there is always the danger of false cop/doc claims to confuse the town and muddle the evidence collected, and the danger that the doc or the cop are night killed by the mafia in those days the town doesn't lynch. I'm not sure why he is so strongly advocating this tactic, but I feel it's a foolish one. And for that, I am starting to get more and more suspicious of him. But for now, I'll give him the benefit of the first post, and trust him.
Jason - Suspicious. He opens with the very first post, in which he boldly claims - '...we MUST net a scum either today or tomorrow...' but after that, he is content to just sit back and post next to nothing. That reeks mafia to me.
ColorlessGreen - He has made several posts, and most of them were useful in one way or another. His opening question was valid, and his rebuffal of xanth was solid as well. Furthermore, I appreciate the terseness of his suspicionlist, it should be something I aim for with my monster post here (but I adressed everyone)
Now, since I retracted my nolecub vote, I'll recast it at the person who comes out as most suspicious for me atm, and that is Vote:Jason
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Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 11, 2009 17:29:27 GMT -5
Interesting.
Just in case nobody else is looking at this like I am, allow me to present this little timeline:
-Nolecub random-votes Jason. -Merlin dislikes this, votes Nolecub. -Nolecub continues to fail to provide a rationale (other than "jason hasn't given me a reason not to"); ends his day with vote still on Jason. -Merlin suddenly decides Nolecub is gg, switches his vote to Nolecub's target, and claims he found Jason suspicious based on his first post (which he never bothered to comment on in any of his multiple posts until now) based on Jason saying it's important not to waste lynches (which, granted, is pretty much a non-post, but he's far from the only person with that viewpoint. No others who have voiced that viewpoint have been claimed suspicious).
While this does not lessen my suspicion of nole, my current hypothesis is that nole and merlin are both mafia, and that merlin's early-day vote for nolecub was an attempt at distancing himself from nole in the event that other people besides me find early-game aggression suspicious and nole ends in a lynch.
Thoughts?
-CG
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Post by merlin on Jun 11, 2009 17:45:48 GMT -5
I have explained why I retracted my vote for nolecub, and switched it to jason. Since nole started contributing, and jason didn't, it seemed the prudent course to steer.
Make of it what you will.
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Post by soylentred on Jun 11, 2009 17:55:03 GMT -5
Jason also has not contributed anything to make me take the vote off him either. My suspect list in no particular order: Firehorse - Slyly excused Jason because he wants to keep him around a bit longer. Why exactly? A non contributor hurts the town. Soylentred - Did the same thing with Firehorse. Also says that Merlin and Noodle are not helping. ( I agree with the Noodle part, but his gameplay has not changed yet) If anything makes me suspicious it is the person who misquotes you and passes it off as fact. You notice he did not quote me to say this. To say I 'slyly excused' him yada yada yada is ridiculous. I said the exact opposite - I said Fire is a good person to keep around because if he is town he is going to say something very insightful and helpful to the town and we should watch for it. He is very logical. I did not say just keep him in even tho he is not contributing - even his seemingly throw away remarks should be paid attention to.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Jun 11, 2009 18:01:59 GMT -5
Firehorse, something about your post disturbs me and I would like for you to shed a little light on it if possible. You talk about my vote for Jason, saying how you do not wish to vote for him for no other reason than just to let him play a little longer. Now, to me, this appears to be a coy way to use the old Jedi Mind trick to steer us away from him. Did anyone else pick up on this on the first read or should I put my fishing pole up now? I knew somebody would mention that but you've played with me before and I always play an edgy abrasive style where I am most always suspected of being mafia. "Usually" I'm not a fly under the radar kind of player in my opinion. No disrespect against your vote. Every game I have played with Jason he's been lynched very early. Since there are many players from which to choose I choose not to vote for him on Day #1 only. If everybody else cares to vote for Jason that is their call. And for the record I am neutral on Jason and have no opinion on him yet either way. I don't get strong town vibes from him but he really has not posted enough for me to hazard an educated guess. That is my only reason, and like I said I could have just voted for someone else and said nothing.
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Post by water_moon on Jun 11, 2009 18:05:35 GMT -5
greater than 1/11 chance of being mafia. one in ten, unless people go and pull the stupid of voting for themself again. SO help me there's nothing worse. We don't lynch today, we don't lynch tomorrow. Essentially we trade a bad lynch for an extra day/night. Cop gets 1 more investigation, doctor gets one more try at a save (which would give us a verified townie), and we get one more kill to examine (which gives us a better chance of seeing the mafia's strategy). First off, you're assuming we find out about a Doctor save, Doc can not protect themself or the same person twice in a row, and the mafia can stop night actions. Even if we have a no kill night the mafia has been known to miss a kill in the past. Your suggested path is TOO dangerous. ONE vote means a lynch, so a mafia waits til the last minute a *boop* free dead townie. Even if we have a lynch next day, that day we've thrown some one in the trash. And in a tight game, that can mean death for the town. Just becuase a stratagy has worked in one set of circumstances doesn't mean it will in another. In the game you are in HERE the idea, while perhaps better than wacking blindly, simply Will. Not. Work. @soy: I frequently open multi reply windows and copy/paste to get the thread/post numbers all in one, I know goltar tends to use notepad in a like manner. Water is very limited as to when she has time to post, namely, nap time (assuming she's not napping) and once goltar can help watch the bundle of engery that passes as a two year old. My suspicions need correlating before I post my list but noodle doesn't seem wierd enough (plus the post count is right, but the content is lacking). As such, merlin is rubbing me the wrong way, both the vote on nole and jason seem out of place if he's so supicious of Noodle.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Jun 11, 2009 18:17:37 GMT -5
Interesting. Just in case nobody else is looking at this like I am, allow me to present this little timeline: -Nolecub random-votes Jason. -Merlin dislikes this, votes Nolecub. -Nolecub continues to fail to provide a rationale (other than "jason hasn't given me a reason not to"); ends his day with vote still on Jason. -Merlin suddenly decides Nolecub is gg, switches his vote to Nolecub's target, and claims he found Jason suspicious based on his first post (which he never bothered to comment on in any of his multiple posts until now) based on Jason saying it's important not to waste lynches (which, granted, is pretty much a non-post, but he's far from the only person with that viewpoint. No others who have voiced that viewpoint have been claimed suspicious). While this does not lessen my suspicion of nole, my current hypothesis is that nole and merlin are both mafia, and that merlin's early-day vote for nolecub was an attempt at distancing himself from nole in the event that other people besides me find early-game aggression suspicious and nole ends in a lynch. Thoughts? -CG Good observation and totally agree. Since the probability of Noleclub seems greater than Bob The Warrior at This point. UNVOTE: BOB THE WARRIOR VOE: NOLECLUB
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