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Post by soylentred on Jun 10, 2009 9:46:56 GMT -5
Good morning all.
Going to do a tentative type fearful sort of snoopy dance of joy to be alive.
With the numbers against us and the game starting with a NK I am nervous for the town.
Wow Goltar - I don't see the mafia killing one of their own. How would that work to gain anything so early? I could see it maybe later to smash assumptions but there aren't any yet.
Jason yes - we must secure a good lynch today.
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Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 10, 2009 9:58:15 GMT -5
Hi everybody.
This is partially because I think it's as valid a strategy as any for figuring out targets in the early game, and partially because I don't actually know a decent chunk of the denizens of this town (at least by these names), so:
Who would have been a good night one NK that didn't get NK'd?
-CG
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Post by goltar on Jun 10, 2009 10:32:29 GMT -5
Wow Goltar - I don't see the mafia killing one of their own. How would that work to gain anything so early? I could see it maybe later to smash assumptions but there aren't any yet. That's basically what I was saying. |
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Post by merlin on Jun 10, 2009 10:37:59 GMT -5
Hello everybody,
It's dangerous to judge players based on past roles, really. After all, they are randomized, so past roles don't have any merit or value in this round.
With these odds, the mafia might very well decide to night kill one of their own at some time, just to confuse the townies, but night one is a wee bit early for that.
And I think Nac would be a fairly good candidate for NK on night 1, given that he has some experience. Goltar and jason would also qualify I think.
So Goltar, seeing as how you cast some doubts on the NK for night 1, who would you have thought to be a better substitute?
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Post by Jason Maher on Jun 10, 2009 11:13:01 GMT -5
I often wonder what the merit is in trying to second-guess the night 1 kill. It is only any use if there is an answer to the question: "who would have had motive to kill player x on night 1" that isn't every player in the game.
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Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 10, 2009 11:45:53 GMT -5
There is no merit to trying to think through the N1 NK. The only things that could be learned from it are based on experience from past games, and it's such an obvious thing to base a N1 NK on that, even if it were based on past games, there's even odds that it's someone attempting to frame someone else based on the obviousness of last game.
However, the thing that makes thinking through the N2 NK worthwhile, and changes the game from throwing darts at a list of names to a logical thought-based exercise is all the discussion that goes on during D1.
So, we need something to discuss, and the N1 NK is as good as anything else, though I'd still prefer to discuss who would be a good N1 NK that isn't dead. People who would be strong candidates for a N1 NK that didn't die have a higher chance at being mafiosi (granted, not much higher, but anything is better than nothing).
-CG
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Post by soylentred on Jun 10, 2009 11:48:41 GMT -5
Hi everybody. This is partially because I think it's as valid a strategy as any for figuring out targets in the early game, and partially because I don't actually know a decent chunk of the denizens of this town (at least by these names), so: Who would have been a good night one NK that didn't get NK'd? -CG I like this question not because of the answer which differs depending on who is pulling the trigger but because it goes to the heart of how people want to play the game. Does scum really want to wipe out the smartest players or do they want a challenging game. Will they leave certain people alone because the game will be more exciting or are they hellbent for a win ASAP. Also the group dynamic comes in to play as with the town deciding on a lynch as to who has the ability to make the crowd go with their choice vs the person who can't convince the crowd but who might actually make the cleverest pick. It is a true conundrum. I do think some of the newer to the group players may have been left alone on night one for a few reasons: -encourage them to play with us - if they are killed out of the game too fast is there a fear they won't be back. -game interest - to get to know some new players and vice versa -the arrogance that they aren't going to play the game as well or that the core of usuals will be able to play them better ie they are not as dangerous as they find their feet. |
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Post by goltar on Jun 10, 2009 15:18:16 GMT -5
So Goltar, seeing as how you cast some doubts on the NK for night 1, who would you have thought to be a better substitute? In my opinion, I find the strongest players (of those I know in this round) to be Nac, w_m, myself, and nolecub. So if the mafia were aiming to eliminate the strong players, anyone from that list would qualify. I'm less inclined to see Nac as a good target for night 1, because while he is a strong player, his playstyle lends himself to being framed easily by a skilled mafia. As such, he is more valuable to the mafia to be left around for at least a day or two. |
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Post by water_moon on Jun 10, 2009 16:07:07 GMT -5
People who would be strong candidates for a N1 NK that didn't die have a higher chance at being mafiosi (granted, not much higher, but anything is better than nothing). Who would you consider a strong canidate for said NK? Yourself? While I agree N1 kills are baised on previous games (if at all) because that's all there is to go on, the rest of that assumes: 1. the mafia are good players. 1b. the mafia have played previously with us (we have a noticeable number of newcomers, and frankly, they are more suspect to me for lack of a comparative value, not to mention sclience) 2. the mafia isn't trying to frame a good player. 3. random is random While I would normally agree with number 3, there are some people who haven't been nice plain vanilla townies from the get go, and the sample is simply too small. (sorry merlin) From the mafia's POV, if they were to pick at random, the stats say go for one of the power role people and Nac fits that bill. (Thus why I think he was killed, nolecub) As for the others, #1 and #2 are in conflict with each other, thus CG's assumption is basied on faulty logic that will lead to useless conjecture at best and cost us a good player at worst. As a reminder for those who are prone to TLDR: Where are the NEWBIES? Hello! time to come out and play! |
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Post by merlin on Jun 10, 2009 16:07:15 GMT -5
goltar - Given that the mafia follows a similar train of thought, it would seem to lead to the inevitable conclusion that several, if not all on that list are mafia. It's not particularly hard for people to frame somebody, if they can play the crowd. I for one think that it has most to do with swaying power really. @jason - the purpose of talking about the NK on night 1 is to generate discussion, which can be analyzed later. @soylenthred - The mafia will try to get rid of the most dangerous players first, because it's going to be that much harder once the lynchtrain gets started.
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Post by water_moon on Jun 10, 2009 16:12:07 GMT -5
The mafia will try to get rid of the most dangerous players first, because it's going to be that much harder once the lynchtrain gets started. Who's more dangerous? the doc / cop or the smart player? |
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Post by nolecub on Jun 10, 2009 16:28:01 GMT -5
Putting myself in the mafia's shoes for night 1, the first line of business would be to try to take out a power role. 2 power roles, 8 townies, 25% chance to hit right. Add to the formula who would be the most dangerous to the mafia should they have that role, and you increase your odds a bit, seeing as how a power role in inexperienced hands would not benefit the town too much.
Based on past experiences, there is a lot more to the mafia's night 1 NK than random is random. Whether it be redemption, vindication, or planting a seed for future days, very rarely would the night 1 kill go without some thought.
While it is still early in the day, discussion needs to turn to today's lynch at some point. So let's get it started:
vote:Jason
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Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 10, 2009 16:38:05 GMT -5
@wm: Before you accuse me of faulty logic, take a moment to get rid of your assumptions about what I'm trying to say or accomplish.
To address a few of your points:
#1: In any contest, one should assume that one's opponent is intelligent. If it turns out they are not, it's a lot easier to backpedal and formulate a strategy to deal with the stupid people.
#1b: Enough of the population has played before that the odds of the mafia being comprised entirely of new players is not high. I do not hope to figure out every mafia on day one.
#2: I don't understand why this is a given or why it is in conflict with #1. I can say with a pretty large degree of certainty that we are not looking at a situation where a stupid mafia is attempting to impersonate an intelligent mafia with any degree of success, because the ability to successfully impersonate anything is, IMO, indicative of intelligence. However, the possibility that the mafia is (or will be) intelligently attempting some form of misdirection is quite high. The question I've posed about who other likely targets that didn't get killed is fully capable of factoring in this possibility - I am not the one who said that the N1 NK was absolutely, definitely attempting to take out a strong player.
Lastly, there's things I want to know from this question that aren't just going to end with "we should lynch that person today". If I were to list them all, they would be easy to manipulate by the mafia, so I won't.
-CG
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Post by water_moon on Jun 10, 2009 16:41:57 GMT -5
And soylent raised a vaild point, you have to think like the mafia. But every person thinks differntly, and you have to figure out how a given person would behave in such a situation. May I remind you of the case of Nac Runo leaving the cop alive for 3 days AFTER he'd come out? The inablity to predict his actions is what makes a mad man dangerous.
One saving grace is the mafia is a group, they DO have to agree, even if a stong personality is leading. The question is who is behaving out of character? Who is quietly sitting back and who is leading who hasn't been? the only player truly new to this group is Xanath, there are convient links to perevious rounds in the thread above for those who wish to study case files.
Now merlin: why do you agree with goltar's opinon of the mafia thought process and dismiss soylent's?
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Post by merlin on Jun 10, 2009 16:45:47 GMT -5
@watermoon - The smart player, always. If the cop or doc isn't playing it smart, they are soon found out and done under. nolecub - the thing that is lacking behind this vote is discussion. Putting down a name - 'just cos you have to start somewhere' seems rather foolish in a game where the town has a decidedly small margin of error. vote:nolecub |
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