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Post by Nac Runo on Apr 20, 2009 18:08:15 GMT -5
First night is over, Firehorse has been killed. Good luck with hunting. You have 48 hours to settle your problems among you.
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Post by muzzz on Apr 20, 2009 19:09:52 GMT -5
Vote: Nole
He murdered firehorse.
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Post by soylentred on Apr 20, 2009 20:59:57 GMT -5
I am here but totally confused. I missed the start also.
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Post by muzzz on Apr 21, 2009 2:24:11 GMT -5
So, did you manage to get a look at someone?
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Post by nolecub on Apr 21, 2009 10:15:49 GMT -5
I investigated water moon last night and she showed townie. This means I cannot be a paranoid cop (since I would have gotten a mafia result).
Anyone else investigate w-m?
muzzz...who did you investigate and what was the result? We need to be able to eliminate the possible roles we could have.
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Post by muzzz on Apr 21, 2009 11:09:14 GMT -5
I investigated you and found you guilty
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Post by water_moon on Apr 21, 2009 16:06:41 GMT -5
I'm with soylent, that is confused. I thought we didn't want to lynch anyone today unless we were 100% sure, so why the vote muzz?
(I checked firehorse b/c I figured the mafia would go for some one active, not inactive. He was guilty so I'm either psyco or paranoid)
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Post by nolecub on Apr 21, 2009 16:23:54 GMT -5
Well, obviously someone is not telling the truth.
3 scenarios:
1. soy is being coy. She did not really miss the start of the round and is just trying to throw us off.
2. muzzz is lying. Well, not lying, as if he is a cop, and did investigate me, and received a mafia return, he is either insane or paranoid cop. muzzz cannot be the sane cop, since my reveal was wrong.
3. water_moon is lying. Also would have to be insane or paranoid.
Since I cannot be the paranoid one...my reading on water_moon was townie i must be the real cop or naive.
So....this is making my brain hurt a bit.
If I am the real cop, then muzzz and soy are the only possible suspects.
If I am the naive cop, all 3 are still suspects.
Before I hurt anymore...soy, did you get a target in last night?
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Post by nolecub on Apr 21, 2009 16:27:32 GMT -5
Also, according to the rules, there must be a minimum of TWO votes on someone for the lynch to occur.
I strongly suggest a no lynch today so that the 2 remaining cops can bring justice tomorrow.
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Post by muzzz on Apr 21, 2009 16:59:46 GMT -5
I'm with soylent, that is confused. I thought we didn't want to lynch anyone today unless we were 100% sure, so why the vote muzz? It was mostly a joke. And a small part bait, even though I didn't really think anyone would take it. Unvote: NoleNole's reasoning seems sound to me. I'll try to make a similar post from my point of view later. Everybody should do that, in fact.
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Post by muzzz on Apr 21, 2009 17:47:47 GMT -5
Actually, Nole could still be insane. But only if I'm paranoid and W_M is nafia.
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Post by nolecub on Apr 22, 2009 11:55:12 GMT -5
muzzz, need that analysis bud.
soy, please answer....Did you forget to send in a target?
w-m - What kind of cookies are on the menu today?
Need some kind of discussion going on here. Who should each of us target tonight to get the most information?
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Post by muzzz on Apr 22, 2009 13:49:57 GMT -5
Sorry I'm a little late with the analysis. I did it in a spreadsheet and had some trouble getting it to display properly on the boards. In the end I had to replace all spaces with dashes to keep the alignment correct. It's still a little messed up, but it works. If you find the dashes distracting, copy everything to notepad and replace them back to spaces.
M-N-W-S-F are player initials. S-I-N-P-S are roles, starting with sane and ending with scum. In hindsight, I should've gone with M-for-Mafia. Maybe tomorrow.
Legend O: Assumption X: Impossible -: Space
--M--N-W--S-F-----M--N--W--S-F-----M--N--W--S-F-----M--N-W--S--F-----M--N-W--S-F S------X--------S-X--X--X--------S----X--X--------S-X----X--X------S-X----X---- I---------------I-------X--------I-X--X-----------I----X----X------I-X--------- N-X----X--------N-X-----X--------N-X--X--X--------N-X----X--X------N-X----X---- P----X----------P----X--X--------P----X-----------P----X----X------P-X--X------ S-X---------X---S-X--X--O--X-C---S-X--O--X--X-X---S-X--X-X--O--X---S-O--X-X--X-X ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --M--N-W--S-F-----M--N--W--S-F----------------------M--N-W--S--F--------------- S-X----X--------S-X--X--X-------------------------S-X----X--X------------------ I-O--X-X--X-X---I-O--X--X--X-X--------------------I-O--X-X--X--X--------------- N-X----X--------N-X-----X--X-X--------------------N-X----X--X------------------ P-X--X----------P-X--X--X-------------------------P-X--X----X------------------ S-X--X------X---S-X--X--O--X-C--------------------S-X--X-X--O--X--------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --M--N-W--S-F---------------------------------------M--N-W--S--F--------------- S-O--X-X--X-X-------------------------------------S-X----X--X------------------ I-X--X--------------------------------------------I-X--X----X--X--------------- N-X--X-X------------------------------------------N-X----X--X------------------ P-X--X--------------------------------------------P-O--X-X--X--X--------------- S-X----X--X-X-------------------------------------S-X--X-X--O--X--------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------M--N--W--S-F------------------------------------------------- ----------------S-X--X--X------------------------------------------------------ ----------------I-X--O--X--X-X------------------------------------------------- ----------------N-X--X--X------------------------------------------------------ ----------------P----X--X--X-X------------------------------------------------- ----------------S-X--X--O--X-X-------------------------------------------------
Basically, I've been looking for contradictions. I make one or more assumptions, and figure out which combinations are impossible under that assumption. Each of the "tables" above represents one such set of assumptions and impossibilities.
The top-left one is my baseline. It's only assumes that me and firehorse aren't scum, and that townies won't lie. The latter implies that Nole and W_M don't have cop roles that would contradict their claims. The other tables are constructed from the baseline. I make assumptions, and cross out new impossibilities.
If I'd managed to cross out an entire row or column, it would mean that the assumptions in that table are impossible. They (or their implications) contradict facts. As you can see, the options for any of us being scum are still open. None of the other assumptions I made turned out contradictory, either.
Talking you through all of them would take a page or two, so I won't. But feel free to ask any questions you have.
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I don't have much advice for investigations. We know the most about W_M (1 read, 2 contradictions), then Nole (1 read, 1 contradiction) and me (1 contradiction). We know nothing about Soy.
So far, the results tell us more about the investigators than the targets. Mostly because they tell us nothing until we can rule out that the investigator isn't naive or paranoid. It'd be great if we could do that. But I see no sure-fire way to achieve it.
Focusing our efforts on people we already know about could potentially help us break the case tomorrow. But there's a risk of overkill. Vice versa for focusing on people we know little about. I'm not sure which is better.
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Post by water_moon on Apr 22, 2009 14:31:04 GMT -5
nolecub: it's too hot to bake (record temps), so you'll have to settle for ice cream or cholate drop cookies (you don't cook them). Don't worry our temps will drop about 30 degrees by Friday so normal cookies will resume by then. @muzz: (you have a C for X in the second colum where firehorse meets scum) but that did remind me of the the little table thingies. As a reminder to those who are less familiar with the zebra type logic puzzles any colum where only 1 option is left means that option has to be true (and thus it is not avilable for any others.) Meanwhile we all need to focus on one person. And it'd be nice is soy showed up before the end of day......
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Post by soylentred on Apr 22, 2009 15:02:37 GMT -5
yes sorry I missed sending a target. I am genuinely confused. I will try to catch up and be better. How long til night. And we all have to investigate correct?
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