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Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 10, 2009 21:24:22 GMT -5
nolecub: If you would be so kind as to oblige, would you please explain your choice in vote and/or speak up in general? Thanks, -CG
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Post by Jason Maher on Jun 10, 2009 21:43:30 GMT -5
Ah nole, now I know I'm guilty because of your most extensive reasoning, I'm guessing I have no choice but to vote for myself?
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Post by goltar on Jun 10, 2009 22:03:25 GMT -5
Good mafia will try to frame a good townie player at some point. That's how they are in direct conflict. Granted on the first part. Yes, a good mafia is highly likely to try to frame a townie at *some* point in the game, if not continuously. However, we cannot assume that they will always be trying to frame a townie. That quickly becomes too obvious, and therefore a truly good mafia will alter their strategies throughout the game. Therefore, the two are not in conflict. It is quite possible that the mafia is driven by new players, and they chose Nac as their night 1 NK after reading previous mafia threads here and noticing his skill, with no regard to framing anyone. I don't consider that a likely scenario, but it is very possible, and should definitely be considered. And as for merlin's choice of words, I see nothing out of the ordinary with it. It is a common way of phrasing assumptions in engineering, and as such I'm very familiar with it, even if I rarely use it myself.
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Xanth
New Member
Posts: 27
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Post by Xanth on Jun 10, 2009 23:15:08 GMT -5
Okay, I'm going to start with a bunch of apologies and disclaimers. First, I'm sorry that I haven't posted yet. Started a post this morning, but then I got busy (Vet visit, cake tasting, and a live game of mafia played in a chatroom that was CRAZY). So sorry to only be posting now. Here's the post I was working on earlier, with some new stuff added. I'll try to follow up in the morning when I wake up.
I'm going to take a moment to say that I don't know anybody here. I read the earliest rounds when they were hosted on the diii.net forums, but nothing since then. So I have nothing to add to the discussions on "why this person." Not yet anyway. I'm useless in that regard today.
Also, quick disclaimer: The games I've played use the terms "sheriff" and "priest" instead of "cop" and "doctor." If I screw up my terminology, you're now braced for it.
There are some themes today that I would like to respond to however. Most of them come from soylentred's posts on page 3:
1. Does the mafia want a challenge, or go for the win? - Mafia goes for the win. You set up the game to be as balanced as possible, and you play with smart people to make the game engaging and challenging. Once the game starts, you play to win.
1b. HOWEVER! Going for the win does not always mean wiping out the cream of the crop, ESPECIALLY if you are part of that cream. I've seen several games where all the top dogs except for one got knocked off, and the town eventually said "Um... How is _____ still alive?" The mafia fell apart soon afterwards. More common, you see the elite players protected by the doc, which slows down the mafia, gives the cop more time, and gives the town a known townie to rally behind. When I'm mafia, I bottom feed. Take out targets I think won't be protected, which is an identifiable strategy that also spares me from the eventual question "Why is Xanth still alive?" The town is left with very little to talk about (just like "Duh, they killed him because he's good" leaves us with little to talk about today).
2. "Do you leave a townie alive if you think you can get them to go along with you?" - If there's a townie you think you can control, you sometimes leave that player alive, yes. Depends on the mafia's style, however, as these types of players (I call them gullible yuppies, or "guppies") aren't protected by the doc as often (all targeting abilties tend to aim for the top of the food chain). Sharks can safely eat guppies, which fits my tastes just fine.
Same goes for people you think you can frame. They can be rewarding to leave alive, but they're among the least risky to kill.
3. "How do you deal with new players?" - I think your observations about new players are pretty spot on. For as ruthless a game as this can be, the "nice guy" card gets played a lot with new players. Desire to grow the community is probably the biggest motivation, followed by the "let's not be mean to the new guy" bleeding heart motivation. I leave the n00bs alone. Arrogance could be a factor too (figuring new = bad). The other group I play with (I will shamelessly plug this group repeatedly) is an intelligent, clever bunch pretty much across the board, so I always assume that new players will learn quickly and be just as good as everybody else in no time.
Alright, here's what I make of all this.
WM seems to agree with me (or rather, I agree with her, since she posted first) that the mafia does NOT logically have to aim for the smartest players. This is absolutely correct. But as the player here that people seem to be looking up to, it also provides her with plausible deniability if she's mafia (In case the "Why aren't you dead?" argument pops up). Something to keep in mind.
Merlin's posts bother me the most. He seems pretty certain that the mafia is behaving a certain way, that it would be guaranteed that the mafia would aim for the strong, and that if the mafia was good, they would try to frame a townie at some point in the game. To me, a mafia that acts during the day is a sloppy mafia, and putting people in the mode where organized activity during the day = mafia really hinders our ability to lynch the mafia successfully. I don't know that he's guilty, but I certainly disagree with his logic.
Okay, that's all I have for now. I'll wait for some responses before I vote. Two final notes:
1. My forum name on the diii forums is Rhyme. I go by Xanth almost everywhere else, but that name was taken on the diii forums.
2. Warning: I have a reputation for writing enormously long walls of text. I maybe should have put that disclaimer up top.
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Post by merlin on Jun 11, 2009 3:03:41 GMT -5
Xanth - In an online mafia game (the only ones I played) it's vital to be able to analyze postbeahvior, so you can sniff out the rats. Hence, those that are mostly quiet during the day automatically become suspect. Hence, a decent mafia player will make an effort to contribute during the day, in order to avoid suspicion. I guess each NK by the mafia is planned by weighing several important factors, some of which may or may not have become apparent during the previous day: - their own, previously formed gameplan - Suspicions regarding the identity of the cop or the doc - an analysis of the behavior of the townies during the day, seeking out those whose death can be most useful in regard to: a) likeliness of being protected b) Possibility that the townie death will lead the townies oin a wild (and mostly wrong) goose chase c) Accuracy in pinpointing the mafia on their suspect list. In the first night, I guess the mafia rarely targets a new player not so much because of the 'bleeding heart' sentiment (although it IS a factor), but rather based on trackrecord of previous performances. Since new(er) playersa rarely have much of a trackrecord, it allows for a free pass so to speak. The reason I am pointing this out is that it won't mean the mafia will let a new player live if they perceive such a player to be a danger. So far, the following players have contributed next to nothing - Firehorse, who has one post with nothing eminently useful contentwise. - Jason Maher, whose two posts have been constricted to one - or twoliners. - nolecub, who has cast a vote without argument and said nothing since. - Noodle, BobtheWarrior, neither of whom has posted anything so far. I'm curious to hear what they have to say.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Jun 11, 2009 6:50:52 GMT -5
Xanath - I agree with the part of your post whereby the mafia should not pick off the all the strong players. It does peel away the layers and leaves Mafia vulnerably obvious. I don't think this game will be played that way. Nac is a strong player and perhaps the next NK will be another strong one - after that look for an incognito or perceived poorer player to be killed. Good reading.
Merlin - Yes this is only my second post and my first one was luckluster. Hopefully this is viewed as an improvement, but it is my usual style of play on the first day or two and I tend to pick up speed after if still alive.
Like you I would like to hear from Bob and Noodle as well. After a day of heavy posting I have opinions on who hints mafia, who is not and others I have no clue either way.
There is a vote for Jason Maher but I am not going to vote for him. I have yet to be in a game where he's survived for very long so out of curiosity if nothing else I'd like to see his game play and steer my vote elsewhere. Did I have to say this? No. But what the heck.
Personally I prefer to leave the heavy posters alone for now. In case I don't make it back before day's end....
VOTE: Bob The Warrior
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Post by nolecub on Jun 11, 2009 7:29:38 GMT -5
Jason, how can you fault my logic? Everyone knows the first to post in a game is mafia!!! You are guilty, and your admission has sealed your fate.
/end sarcasm
The vote was merely to try and get discussion going on TODAY'S lynch instead of what happened last night. However, the discussion continued for a bit but has now shifted to the subject at hand.
There are a lot of in depth posts today (something that totally escapes me). It is those posts who spend a lot of words to say nothing that I am currently trying to dissect to see who my final vote will fall on.
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Post by bobthewarrior on Jun 11, 2009 7:41:05 GMT -5
xanth - Some deep insight into the mind of the mafia, it's obvious he's played a few games. I'm suprised to see him post that detail in his first post among this group, it seems very townie friendly, but marks him as a possible NK target. Risky, IMO. We'll see what else he comes up with.
FIREHORSE - A flush-out vote for me. I don't know him and he doesn't know me, so I'll let him know that I share his style of play for the first day or two, but typically continue it to the end of the game as well. I.e. I don't post a lot, but they tend to be long. I don't know how many games I've played, this one is somewhere in the teens, and I think I've had a flush-out vote on me in well over half of the games. Meh.
As for you, I see you played the last game with some success (sidenote, I would love to play in that version sometime with more players, sorry I missed it.). Not sure who you are or how you got to this board, so no real feeling one way or the other how you align.
Goltar-Soylentred-WM-CG - I'm lumping them together just for convenience, my thoughts on them are pretty similar. Lots of talk about how the mafia has operated/may operate/should operate. I like CG's question of "who should've died that didn't" as a different method of rooting for answers and getting some discussion going, although it seems with lackluster results (to me, anyway). No alignment to be found by me for any of them yet.
Jason's post #34 is a bit suspect. If he wonders why we're second-guessing the first NK, what else are we to do? Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but it appears to be nothing more than a post for the sake of a post. He has had some follow up, so no real concerns. Yet.
Merlin- Merlin's a tough one for me, always is. He talks a good talk, but his style of posting never rubs me the right way. I have an inherent "bad" vibe from him because of it that is always hard to shake. So far this game, trying to put that aside, he seems solid.
I know, I know, not much from me. I haven't played a mafia game in quite some time, seems it's not like riding a bike . . .
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Xanth
New Member
Posts: 27
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Post by Xanth on Jun 11, 2009 9:34:10 GMT -5
xanth - Some deep insight into the mind of the mafia, it's obvious he's played a few games. I'm suprised to see him post that detail in his first post among this group, it seems very townie friendly, but marks him as a possible NK target. Risky, IMO. We'll see what else he comes up with. Maybe risky, but the same things that could shove me up the NK priority list may also mark me as worthy of a doctor save. I could have played dumb and flown under the radar as a rookie learning the ropes, but I don't really gain anything from that, and I wouldn't really benefit anybody either. I debated laying low for a bit, but with the numbers where they are, we don't have much time to figure things out. Jason pointed out that we need a correct lynch either today or tomorrow, or we lose. The games I usually play start with a few days of no-lynches. We require 50% with no ties to lynch. Here it's just the most votes... Is there a way to do a no-lynch? Like, if I vote "VOTE: No Lynch" and that gets the most votes, does that work? At 7-4, we've got a roughly 2/3 chance of lynching wrong. That means we'd have to be PERFECT tomorrow to even stay in the game. If, however, we postpone two days, that lets the cop do some work, gives the doctor a few shots at a save, and by the time we need to be perfect to win, we'll have much better info to work with. Frankly, I think it's the only thing other than "dumb luck" that will give us any sort of a chance with the odds so heavily in the mafia's favor. Thoughts?
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Post by nolecub on Jun 11, 2009 10:00:58 GMT -5
Firehorse, something about your post disturbs me and I would like for you to shed a little light on it if possible.
You talk about my vote for Jason, saying how you do not wish to vote for him for no other reason than just to let him play a little longer. Now, to me, this appears to be a coy way to use the old Jedi Mind trick to steer us away from him.
Did anyone else pick up on this on the first read or should I put my fishing pole up now?
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Post by nolecub on Jun 11, 2009 10:03:46 GMT -5
Xanth: There is really no way a "no lynch" benefits the town this early in the game. All this does is give the mafia a free shot at a NK and leaves us with nothing to go on Day 2. At least with a lynch, we can see who voted for who, who jumped on a lynch train, yadda, yadda, yadda. A "No Lynch" does nothing of this sort. All the mafia has to do is NK someone who has not had much participation.
Also, once a vote has been cast, a no lynch is impossible according to the rules.
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Post by colorlessgreen on Jun 11, 2009 10:09:57 GMT -5
Xanth: With all due respect, I absolutely hate that argument. First, there's the stuff that nolecub pointed out about no-lynching merely gives the mafia a free NK with no additional information. Also, it guarantees that we will be in the perfect-game-required situation with a 0% chance of hitting a mafia prior to that occurrence, as opposed to the ~33% chance that your model claims we would have. But, my main problem is the ~33% claim. This is true if we are choosing our lynch target by rolling a die. We aren't. I don't know about you, but I've got at least a couple people who seem very mafiesque. I'd like to think, given the fact that you appear to have played this game before, that you could think of someone who has a greater than 1/11 chance of being mafia. -CG
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Post by Noodle on Jun 11, 2009 10:30:04 GMT -5
I'm a bit suspicious of merlin for deliberately ignoring my previous post. What gives, merlin?
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Xanth
New Member
Posts: 27
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Post by Xanth on Jun 11, 2009 11:37:49 GMT -5
Xanth: With all due respect, I absolutely hate that argument. First, there's the stuff that nolecub pointed out about no-lynching merely gives the mafia a free NK with no additional information. Also, it guarantees that we will be in the perfect-game-required situation with a 0% chance of hitting a mafia prior to that occurrence, as opposed to the ~33% chance that your model claims we would have. But, my main problem is the ~33% claim. This is true if we are choosing our lynch target by rolling a die. We aren't. I don't know about you, but I've got at least a couple people who seem very mafiesque. I'd like to think, given the fact that you appear to have played this game before, that you could think of someone who has a greater than 1/11 chance of being mafia. -CG Yeah, my suspicions give me a better idea 1/11 chance of nailing a mafia. For each of us it's actually a 40% chance if picking blindly (because you know that you're innocent). But it's not like I know a lot. I'm not naive enough to think that I can pick a mafia from a night 1 kill and day 1 posturing alone. At best, I'd say we have a 50% chance of being right. 50% chance of being right today, and then if we're wrong, a 50% chance of being right tomorrow (that second 50% is also based on a random guess). 75% chance that we survive to day 3, which isn't bad. With what we learn from tomorrows discussion, maybe 80-85%, which is quite good (also quite generous). But I never bank on luck. We'd enter tomorrow knowing that if we had lynched a townie on day 1, we'd need to be in perfect unison in order to survive until day 3. Because of the severity of the consequences, we'd pretty much have to assume we guessed wrong on day 1. So because it's the make it or break it day, you'd pretty much need the cop to reveal himself to help the town. Now you've got an outed cop with only two investigations under his/her belt. Compare that to this: We don't lynch today, we don't lynch tomorrow. Essentially we trade a bad lynch for an extra day/night. Cop gets 1 more investigation, doctor gets one more try at a save (which would give us a verified townie), and we get one more kill to examine (which gives us a better chance of seeing the mafia's strategy). When we reach the "must lynch" day, we have much more to work with. We only get 1 shot at it instead of 2, but that 1 shot will be much better informed. It's fine if you disagree with that. I'm just saying that I'd rather put my faith in the power roles and more information than in more chances. That's the risk/reward option that I prefer.
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Post by soylentred on Jun 11, 2009 11:55:04 GMT -5
I am really enjoying these posts. I am going out for my run where I will be mulling this over and hopefully make a post that is worthy of some of these.
I am going to re-read again - sorry Merlin - I can go through your posts and clip and point out why but most of it is rubbing me the wrong way or not ringing true or something. My spidey sense is tingling.
I don't know the trick of how you guys do it of getting multiple quotes in one post - but there are so many bits of what people have said here that I would like to comment on. Bear with me.
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