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Post by goltar on Feb 19, 2009 17:22:25 GMT -5
I voted for you because you are throwing baseless accusations, ignoring the answers to your own questions, and I don't think you're helping the town at all. So far, you have the best chance of being mafia based on my observations. Keep up the probing, just lose the arrogance. It's offensive. And it's contagious, which is (literally) making me physically ill.
I'm content with my vote for now, unless something else jumps out.
As to sitro, nothing he's done yet has set off anything in my mind. Some of his questions are relevant, some are not.
No, I'm not 100% sure of my vote. I'd say I'm closer to 30-40%, but that's the best I've got right now. And I'm not trying to play a village idiot. I'd considered it before the game, but discarded the idea.
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SiTro
Junior Member
Posts: 56
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Post by SiTro on Feb 19, 2009 17:24:27 GMT -5
I'd considered it before the game, but discarded the idea. Out of interest, before or after you learned your role?
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gorny
New Member
Posts: 11
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Post by gorny on Feb 19, 2009 17:41:09 GMT -5
Being that this is my first mafia game on these boards, I was unaware that the VI role is next to never used. So I naturally suspected it.
The way things are going now I don't suspect anyone of being either pro town or pro mafia just yet. There's not enough said (and done) yet.
I'll wait for Noodle to chime in later om.
Just a side note, I bought a house and am closing on it tomowwor morning.I will likely not post until afternoon sometime.
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Feb 19, 2009 18:13:49 GMT -5
So far, you have the best chance of being mafia based on my observations. You don't believe that (because you know otherwise), but you're too far along in your act against me to say anything to the contrary. Keep up the probing, just lose the arrogance. It's offensive. Offensively arrogant is my middle name. Only the mafia, who have much more to lose, get this worked up about toneless internet drivel that could easily be written off as humor (attempts) if you didn't like what you read. And it's contagious, which is (literally) making me physically ill. Hint you want the doc to save you or that my playstyle is actually giving you an ulcer?
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Post by soylentred on Feb 19, 2009 18:15:41 GMT -5
Excuse me! I'll ask the questions here, people!!! Soy: Taking into account the fact that Ray was a mafia member in the last round he played, how likely do you think it is that he is a mafia member in this round? Also, I would be much obliged if you could answer my previous question to you. Also, so it's covered, a role blocker is a role that has the power to act at night to stop other roles from being able to carry out their activities. In games I've played, it's normally been fairly specific, targetting one person and if that person was say, the cop, they'd be unable to perform their investigation that I am so glad you asked that... Ray being mafia (I think you are referring to round 4 where there were 13 players) and him being mafia in this game of 14 assuming at least 3 mafia in each game. I am assuming 3 because I think 2 is too low. So for Ray to be mafia round 4 AND mafia round 6 is 3/13 multiplied by 3/14 = 9/182 = roughly 4.9 percent. I myself think that is unlikely. Being smaller numbers in the games of course raises the probability. As for your other question - I will go back and look but if I think a question is inane or rhetorical I will often not answer.
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Feb 19, 2009 18:21:50 GMT -5
Gambler's fallacy? On the first day? Ray has the same odds of being mafia that everyone else has. He drew the short straw twice however, and lightning has indeed struck again. Ray = goltar's buddy.
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Post by soylentred on Feb 19, 2009 18:21:50 GMT -5
firehorse: Do you intend to contribute useful information (from the town's POV) during this game? Soy: Happy to have survived the night? yep having stated in at least my first 2 posts that I was happy to be alive the first morning of a mafia game, I took this question at best as rhetorical. Yes so to answer your question altho it is well noted - I am happy to have survived the night. Delighted. Remember I did the snoopy type dance and kissed the ground.
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Post by soylentred on Feb 19, 2009 18:25:18 GMT -5
Gambler's fallacy? On the first day? Ray has the same odds of being mafia that everyone else has. He drew the short straw twice however, and lightning has indeed struck again. Ray = goltar's buddy. Liquid - having been over this ground before (remember the question is whether he would be mafia in round 4 AND mafia in round 6) I am not going to start my beginner statistics lecture again. Hear that? I think something just dropped.
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Post by soylentred on Feb 19, 2009 18:29:19 GMT -5
putting myself in timeout. I think it is supposed to be 1 minute for every year of age - I will be back next Tuesday.
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Feb 19, 2009 18:33:53 GMT -5
I don't want to hear a beginner's statistic lecture; I just want you to realize that 2 independent events should have no effect on one another. That means your math is unnecessary because last game has absolutely no effect on this one. But I'm done shaking this baby, and I'll see you next Tuesday.
Vote: Ray Patean
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Post by goltar on Feb 19, 2009 18:34:50 GMT -5
I'd considered it before the game, but discarded the idea. Out of interest, before or after you learned your role? Before signups were closed. So far, you have the best chance of being mafia based on my observations. You don't believe that (because you know otherwise), but you're too far along in your act against me to say anything to the contrary. And how exactly do I know otherwise? Offensively arrogant is my middle name. Only the mafia, who have much more to lose, get this worked up about toneless internet drivel that could easily be written off as humor (attempts) if you didn't like what you read. Then this will be the last game we're in together. Again, you are wrong, and again, you refuse to admit it. Hint you want the doc to save you or that my playstyle is actually giving you an ulcer? The latter of the two. I wouldn't argue with a doc save, but since you're now out to get me, and the town always listens to you, I'm fairly safe from NK anyway, as I'm likely to be perceived as an easy lynch. Though a doc save would be nice, as it would almost prove my townie status.
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Post by water_moon on Feb 19, 2009 18:47:16 GMT -5
[glow=red,2,300]admin[/glow] Offensively arrogant is my middle name. arrogant, go for. offensive, not okay. To quote the house rules: Be nice. [glow=red,2,300]/admin[/glow]
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Feb 19, 2009 18:54:36 GMT -5
A blatant appeal to emotion?
Definitely mafia.
(But I'll totally sit out the next few games to give you a Liq-breather in the off-chance this turns out to be genuine.)
@ w_m- wtf? Seriously? I'm playing around in the usual manner and I get scolded? PM me where I've once been offensive and I'll show you where you you've read too much into me. The internet carries no tone; you supply it yourself. (Do I need to throw out more emoticons to make that clearer?) You guys have played enough games with me to know that although I may supply a certain illusion of arrogance, I've never trolled. PM if you wanna talk about this; I have a game to win for the town.
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Post by nolecub on Feb 19, 2009 19:00:25 GMT -5
Collective breath. Group hug.
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sint
Full Member
Posts: 105
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Post by sint on Feb 19, 2009 19:01:20 GMT -5
unvote sitroNo sitro I'm not voting you for any reason.. just spicing things up. So, on to the nightkill. W_M is killed, apart from how good of a player she is, this is a good set up for goltar. Killing one will automatically make the other suspicious. I'd have to say that is a bit of game overreacting, both are good enough to keep their roles privet and ''professional'' enough not to go dig around for eachothers role. Now that that's out of the way. Let's kill goltar to find out. Seriously though, So, who wants to be the first to blame Goltar? Nah, I'll pass for now. Let's analyze what we've got. Assuming only one attempted NK (I'll ignore the possibilities of serial killer with doctor save and the like at the moment), that gives us several hints about the mafia. They could know w_m is fairly analytical, and thus a threat. Why not someone else, like liquid? Could be that liquid is one of them, could be that liquid tends to get lynched mid way through and isn't worth their time. what the hell... in that post you start on LE out of the blue. ''Gee why wasn't LE killed, maybe he's one of them''.. So you're saying that because LE wasn't killed in night one he's an automatic suspect? Moreso then others? Yes, I know you can say everyone is suspicious and you're only sure of your own role, but why pick on LE then? Because you know he's a good lynch target early on? Because you want him to sound suspicious from the get-go? Besides, you should know better then wanting a reason for my first random vote on day 1. vote goltar--- You seem to be pretty sure that there are 3 mafiosos in the game, Liquid. Besides, if I was actually mafia, do you really think I'd be dumb enough to come out and say "Hi, I'm mafia"? That would be the worst mafia play ever. Yay reverse psychologie! Please keep it comming.. usefull stuff. --- Gorny. GORNY. Can you read this?? Hello? Skimming isn't good. --- Liquid - having been over this ground before (remember the question is whether he would be mafia in round 4 AND mafia in round 6) I am not going to start my beginner statistics lecture again. Hear that? I think something just dropped. You cannot say his chance on being mafia this game is smaller because he was mafia in the last game too. You could note that the chance of him being mafia in these two mafia games is indeed ~5%, but that's not taking into account that the two events are seperated. The chance of getting 2 x heads on two consecutive coinflips is 25%, however after you have thrown your coin and got heads once the chance of getting another is still 50% on the second throw. Please stick to ''bad, somewhat bad, don't know, pretty good, good and confirmed'' backed up with arguments on a question what the chances are someone is mafia. --- Lynch order: Goltar Gorny Town: Nac Soy LE: did you spot the distancing between gorny and goltar? --- After preview: The latter of the two. I wouldn't argue with a doc save, but since you're now out to get me, and the town always listens to you, I'm fairly safe from NK anyway, as I'm likely to be perceived as an easy lynch. Though a doc save would be nice, as it would almost prove my townie status. Wait, so you're sure you're a good lynch target, which following your own train of thought will keep you fairly safe from a NK. How would a doc save prove your townie status??
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