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Post by nolecub on Mar 2, 2009 11:40:09 GMT -5
About 4 + hours left in the night.
Just a heads up...from this day forward, days are shortened to 24 hours. Nights will remain at 24 hours.
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Post by nolecub on Mar 2, 2009 15:13:25 GMT -5
Seems the crime wave is not yet over. I have just learned that Nazdakka was found slain.
Time is running out. We need to put an end to this soon.
Nazdakka has been NK'd.
Day has begun and will last 24 hours 45 minutes.
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Post by Noodle on Mar 2, 2009 15:57:20 GMT -5
In case anyone is interested, last night I investigated Firehorse, and saw nothing. I imagine I'll probably be the mafia's target tonight.
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Post by Noodle on Mar 2, 2009 16:01:23 GMT -5
I suspect Nac Runo and Goltar. Anyone concur?
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Post by goltar on Mar 2, 2009 16:38:24 GMT -5
First, my results. I investigated Nacruno again in an attempt to determine my sanity (without that information, I'm no more useful than a plain townie). And he showed town again. I am unable to investigate myself. I'm hoping that ray was a switcher and my results will be good from here out.
Noodle, why do you think Naz was killed instead of you? Naz's role was dependent on yours. Now, I believe that Naz was at least close to what he stated, as he was killed last night. At the absolute least, he was on our side. But if you were killed, then his role would become useless. As it is, you are still helpful (assuming you are what you seem). Personally, that doesn't make sense. You could ask the same of me, but with my results questionable, I'm not as much of a threat to the mafia, and possibly an accidental boon to them.
So, looking at what we've got left.
goltar - I know that I'm town, but no good way to prove it to everyone else.
Nac Runo - Supposedly I dropped something in his mailbox. But otherwise, nothing solid and no claims yet. But he was inactive during a night kill. That doesn't 100% clear him, as it could be that only 1 mafia member is "active" for the kill.
firehorse - No activity last night, and there was a night kill. See Nac Runo.
Noodle - Claiming to be investigator.
ludacris - Inactive on previous night. See firehorse and Nac Runo.
We've got 5 people left, and at least 1 mafia among them. There shouldn't be more than 2 though, or (in theory) we'd have already lost. If we assume all claims to be true (reasonable assumption), then that leaves 3 possible candidates for the mafia. Nac, firehorse, and ludacris. Based on this, the mafia is not entirely "active" for the night kill, as all of them have inactivity on their side. So as far as I'm concerned, they're all suspicious.
Another point. Yesterday, ray was claiming that he knew sitro's role. It is quite possible that the mafia was given sitro's role, and had ray jump in and claim something that fit with it. Nothing says that Noodle isn't doing the same thing, especially if muzzz was the real investigator (killed the night before Naz and Noodle revealed). I'm not inclined to believe that, as Noodle's information adds up nicely. But it's something to consider. I'd like to hear from the unclaimed first though before I make any sort of decision on my vote today.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Mar 2, 2009 18:13:53 GMT -5
When day began I did not care who was NK'd as long as it was not Nazdakka and was going to stare that this morning. I did not suspect him. Surprise surprise he was killed. As for the rest of you I don't have any strong suspicions about any of you any more than the other. FIREHORSE - Take note that the one person who was on my side early on was Liquid. If I was Mafia WHYYYYYYY would I order the kill of the one player who posed no threat with 12 left in the game? ? Make any sense? Furthermore I voted for Mafia Ray 3 straight times. My votes to date were Ludicras, Ray, Ray, Ray. Ray I assume was Mafia. I have claimed no role. Ray tried to drum up a lynch for me and I think Noodle could have been persuaded. Noodle: Because Noodle did this I thought he may be the final Mafia. Then he comes out and says he saw no activity on me. Strategy? Nac Runno - I have no opinion either way Ludicras - Strikes me as the "safest" lynch although not necessarily the best one. He's contributed very little information wise and has remained very silent this game. It may be that if he were Mafia they had this planned. Two mouthy risky Mafia and one who remained silent and sat back from the sidelines while the others (Ray & Soylentred) did the dirty work. If Ludicras is town and we lynch him - we killed our weakest link. Goltar - I've spoken out against Goltar pretty much all game and have stated that Soylentred, Ray & Goltar were my picks for Mafia quite a while ago. Goltar has not played an aggressive game and has done very little finger pointing. I was hoping he would have investigated me and stated his findings so I'd have a better read on him. Presently Goltar or Ludicras are my picks for lynching. I have no strong reason for voting either, but with 4 people left to vote for those 2 seem like the safest bets to me at this point. VOTE: GOLTAR I will change this vote if I feel necessary and depending upon what is written today as I'm on the fence between Goltar & Ludicras. I'll read what the rest of you think. I'll be away for quite a few hours and will check in later.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Mar 2, 2009 18:17:27 GMT -5
I notice I have typos above. I voted Ludicras, Ray, Ray Ray. And I wanted to STATE not Stare. Neeeeed coffee.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Mar 2, 2009 18:21:34 GMT -5
It seems like there were too many claiming to have roles this game. Has anyone else thought that? Is someone lying? One more thing, if Goltar is telling the truth (And he may be), it seems to indicate that Ludicras is the final Mafia.
tap tap tap tap
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Post by goltar on Mar 2, 2009 21:02:46 GMT -5
I'm telling the truth as far as I know. If Noodle saw "me" putting something in Nac Runo's mailbox, I'm not sure if I know the entirety of my role, especially coupled with a questionable sanity. But looking back over my results, I found liquid to be mafia, and he was NK'd. I found soylent to be town, and based on her death, it appears she was mafia. I've twice found Nac to be town. So I could just be getting reversed results.
I'm still not too sure about you and ludacris either. But I'm tending to trust you a bit more than the others at the moment. And my gut is telling me to be most suspicious of Nac.
Yesterday, I got too busy at the end of the day to put in a vote, so I'm going to go ahead and vote now, just in case. For now, I'm going with my gut and assuming my results are all reversed.
Vote: Nac Runo
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Post by FIREHORSE on Mar 2, 2009 23:36:08 GMT -5
Goltar I want you to please post who you investigated in chronological order and state what the results were. If you don't do this, I'll just go back and read your posts. I may do that anyway.
I think Liquid was Town. Your investigtion stated otherwise. Soylent & Ray seemed to be Mafia. Investigation revealed town. You investigated Nac and showed Town.
I have been suspicious of Ludicras, you Goltar and Noodle at various times throughout this game in addition to Ray. I have never suspected Nac.
Your posted "theory" of reversed results however should be given consideration by the 5 who remain. I consider what you said possible. Which means you are Town.
I don't get any strong vibes from any of you 4 and that's my problem. I can sit here and make a case for one of you being Mafia as much as the other 3. I suggested Ludicras as a Lynch simply because the Town can afford to lose him if he winds up being Town.
One additional problem I am battling is inexperience. This is my 2nd game. And I've noticed that Mafia had a specific pecking order in place I think before the game even began. That being true logically the most experienced player left is Mafia or the next target.
To my knowledge that is Goltar. Which raises and important question. Why would Mafia NK Nazdakka instead of Goltar if Goltar is Town?
At the moment Mafia has me stumped.
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Post by FIREHORSE on Mar 2, 2009 23:49:38 GMT -5
Some more connecting the dots: We all pretty much agree Ray was Mafia. Ray was on Ludicras' case all game. That would seem to clear him. It makes no sense that ray would out the final Mafia, actually vote for him and try to drum up so much support for his lynching. Ray & I were also at odds all game. Noodle voted for me, but then switched to support Naz who was Town.....or so he says.
Goltar is putting forth some pretty good ideas. If his role reversal theory is correct that points to one other person as the last remaining Mafia member.
If Goltar is truthful.
Nac, Ludicras and Noodle I'd like to hear your imput.
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Post by Nac Runo on Mar 3, 2009 4:14:06 GMT -5
It seems like some people think i am an easy lycnh target due to my inactivity last few days. That is only because mafia is desperate right now. Not much people left to throw the blame on. First of all about the message goltar dropped me; my role is the proof of goltar's claim and his insanity as a cop, because i am his shrink. Goltar's findings are mainly based on luck but not totally random. He had 49% of finding the truth about his target (almost half), and my role does nothing more than increase his chances a bit more. Each night gives goltar 10 rolls to judge his target due to his unsteady mind. He only receives whether town or mafia result has occured more during those rolls, and i receive the complete result for all those 10 rolls. Firehorse, here is a more detailed analysis for goltar's findings: N1: He inspected Liquid_evil, 8 out of 10 rolls said Liquid was mafia. Due to this high percentage, i was also thinking Liq to be mafia till he was dead. N2: Goltar didn't choose any targets, and he just declared to be blocked the next day. N3: Soylentred was inspected, goltar rolled 5 townies out of 5. This was tricky actually due to the tie. I had no idea what the results told him about soy until he declared to get townie results. Soy's actions were suspicious to begin with but these results altogether gave me the definite answer on soy. Goltar had 51% to tell the false answer, thus a 50-50 tie was not enough for him to tell the truth and his townie finding on soy had to be false. I couldn't get this theory of mine verified with nolecub of course but i based my actions that day on this. N4: Unfortunately he started his inspections on me, 6 out of 10 gave townie, and thanks to this small difference he didn't target me of being mafia. N5: Goltar inspects me again, 7 out of 10 gave townie. Result: I highly suspect anyone accusing me of being mafia right now. Although i couldn't find the chance to speak up for myself, nobody bothered to put an explanation on this finding of Nazdakka while accusing me: Night 3) NacRuno: Goltar seen driving up and placing something in the mailbox. If i were mafia, why would any townie would drop me messages. This makes even less sense when both me and goltar are mafia. Also about Ray's death, all we know is that what he said about Sitro is true, nothing else. Can someone point me to a post verifiying that ray was indeed mafia? I think it is still possible that soy was the only mafia and trying to cause confusion and a no-lynch by making a tie on a townie's dead. If we don't have any definate proof we should just assume the worst and act as if there are two more mafia players among us. I am really suspicious of Noodle right now, it just doesn't fit Naz to get killed although Noodle is the one doing the investigations. It might be that muzzz was the investigator actually and Noodle just jumped ın Naz's claim. His finding on Firehorse may be because both Noodle and Firehorse are the remaining mafia players, or Noodle is just trying to buy votes as he can already know that Firehorse is a townie since he himself is mafia. vote:NoodleWe really don't have anything at hand to believe Noodle's claim right now and I really don't think Ludacris to be mafia. If we kill Noodle and the game continues my next target is going to be firehorse since i know goltar and me to be pro-town.
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Post by Nac Runo on Mar 3, 2009 4:22:54 GMT -5
One more thing since i am still trying to catch up. People said Sitro was killed because he put the first vote on Soy. But actually Sitro unvoted later to give soy a vote count of zero again. I was the one to put the first vote on soy the day she got lynched. Sitro getting killed makes sense only if Soy was the one choosing her target, since she voted for Sitro. I thought it was a useless vote then but now it fits.
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Post by goltar on Mar 3, 2009 9:08:26 GMT -5
Nac, you're wrong on one point there. I was blocked night 2, and I did attempt to investigate Noodle. I don't trust you, my vote stays.
Firehorse, he's got the order and results of my investigations correct otherwise, but to clarify, I'll post them in concise form:
Night - Target - Result Night 1 - Liquid Evil - Mafia Night 2 - Noodle - Blocked Night 3 - soylentred - Town Night 4 - Nac Runo - Town Night 5 - Nac Runo - Town
I think the mailbox thing is somehow related to the switcher. That's the only thing that makes sense at this point.
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Post by Nac Runo on Mar 3, 2009 9:23:20 GMT -5
By saying goltar didn't choose any targets, i meant i didn't receive any results. I know you were blocked, i was just telling from my point of view.
Also about the mailbox thing, you miss something. I was not seen at your door step to make any switching possible. You were seen on my door step instead.
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