friedbananazzzz
New Member
My eyes are blue, and I don't lie about there being silver in them.
Posts: 47
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Post by friedbananazzzz on Sept 25, 2008 17:09:17 GMT -5
I had wanted to say this yesterday, but didn't make it in time:
People were all saying Muzzz could have been under the 'Silence' ability, but he could be scum and just say he was Silenced, making him look pro-town.
As for today: I'll have to go back and check Sitro's and Jason's posts, see who they suspected, but for now I like CG's ideas, I thought that reasoning was BS too. I'll hold off on a vote until he address's CG's remarks.
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Post by water_moon on Sept 25, 2008 17:24:45 GMT -5
People were all saying Muzzz could have been under the 'Silence' ability, but he could be scum and just say he was Silenced, making him look pro-town. possible options: 1. As you have it that would lock the ability. If sclience was used on someone else, they'd both look bad, but muzz and his breaking of the RNG would be a more likly target to go sooner. 2. Muzzz is a dragon and used it on himself, but his partner would die if they targetd the dragon slayer, without the slayer dying, addign risk for a low return. 3. Muzz is undead and the dragons used it on him. 4. Muzz is a townie who makes a good target since he usually breaks the RNG. 4B. Townie muzz is framed later by another person claiming to be sclienced. Dangerous to say the least, but not as much so as it would be with a diferrent player.
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Post by water_moon on Sept 25, 2008 17:27:28 GMT -5
BTW, when re-reading to see why Sitro, I noticed some fo my more aggressive comments could be seen as nasty and I'd like to appoligize for any offence given. Cookies for all
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Post by Noodle on Sept 25, 2008 17:43:14 GMT -5
Hm. Here's a possible scenario - Jason was a dragon, and Sitro was the dragon slayer. Sitro voted to lynch Liquid_Evil, another potential dragon, and hence was targeted last night. The scheme blew up in the dragons' face when Sitro took out Jason due to having socketed all his gear with Rainbow Facets.
Liquid_Evil has proactively attempted to guard against being linked to Jason in case he was identified as a dragon by making a show of voting for him. A vote which he conveniently withdrew. Very clever playing, which I would expect of someone of Liquid_Evil's game experience. Well played, Liq, well played.
- Noodle
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Post by nolecub on Sept 25, 2008 19:12:01 GMT -5
My only reason for voting for c_g was that I was trying to protect the ex-hero. At the time of the vote, Muzzz and c_g were tied, and we were not getting anywhere.
Well, i will start the ball rolling on this one then...
Vote:Muzzzz
Vote will stay unless there is a reasonable explanation for his absence yesterday.
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Post by Nazdakka on Sept 25, 2008 20:07:07 GMT -5
Hm. Here's a possible scenario - Jason was a dragon, and Sitro was the dragon slayer. Sitro voted to lynch Liquid_Evil, another potential dragon, and hence was targeted last night. The scheme blew up in the dragons' face when Sitro took out Jason due to having socketed all his gear with Rainbow Facets. Liquid_Evil has proactively attempted to guard against being linked to Jason in case he was identified as a dragon by making a show of voting for him. A vote which he conveniently withdrew. Very clever playing, which I would expect of someone of Liquid_Evil's game experience. Well played, Liq, well played. - Noodle Totally confused at this. Your theory appears to be that SiTro was the dragon slayer, Jason was a dragon, and Liquid is a dragon, and presumably you're saying that the undead faction did nothing or got blocked last night. First , 1) Why have you singled out the dragon faction specifically? The undead equivalent of the dragonslayer is the cleric, so surely your logic would work just as well for that faction. Now, a bigger problem: We were told that... ...which I believe means that both were townies, blowing your theory out of the water. Even if that weren't true, your logic would still be making several huge leaps based on no evidence. Vote NoodleOn the basis that the quoted post appears to make very little sense, and I don't see how this is helping the town. C_G's logic seems sound. I would not be averse to switching to either Nolecub or Liquid should the other votes go toward them.
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friedbananazzzz
New Member
My eyes are blue, and I don't lie about there being silver in them.
Posts: 47
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Post by friedbananazzzz on Sept 25, 2008 22:42:17 GMT -5
possible options: 1. As you have it that would lock the ability. If sclience was used on someone else, they'd both look bad, but muzz and his breaking of the RNG would be a more likly target to go sooner. 2. Muzzz is a dragon and used it on himself, but his partner would die if they targetd the dragon slayer, without the slayer dying, addign risk for a low return. 3. Muzz is undead and the dragons used it on him. 4. Muzz is a townie who makes a good target since he usually breaks the RNG. 4B. Townie muzz is framed later by another person claiming to be sclienced. Dangerous to say the least, but not as much so as it would be with a diferrent player. 1. Not necessesarily. (sp? I hate that word...) It could: A) be used on someone that is already being looked at as suspicious for being under the radar, so when they explained their reason, people say, "but Muzzz was Silenced", adding confusion... a little dangerous, similar to 4b. B) after Muzzz dies, it can be used on whoever the remaining scum wants, 'cause it wouldn't matter anymore 2. It would be a complete waste to use such an ability on oneself, especially when there would be no clues as to who the Slayers are, because they have absolutely no reason to hint at it in the slightest. And even if they do now, that info wouldn't have been known to the scum on N1. 3. Entirely possible, though personally I wouldn't have used the ability on N1 (though I am obviously not as skilled a player at these games as others). 4a/b. Also possible. But all of this is based on Muzzz claiming to be Silenced, which he still hasn't said. Where for art thou, Muzzz? Noodle: Say what? Big scum points for that post, you're climbing my list. C_G's logic seems sound. I would not be averse to switching to either Nolecub or Liquid should the other votes go toward them. I concur. Also, screwing around with the numbers in the quote tags is fun. Apparently you wrote that in the future!
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Liquid Evil
Full Member
The silver in my eyes cuts through any lies.
Posts: 219
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Post by Liquid Evil on Sept 25, 2008 22:43:06 GMT -5
Well played, Liq, well played. Thanks, Noodle. I pretty much pwn. Since C_G was human and had the post made not too long after nightfall (and was therefore, probably not recruited at that point), I take his post as trustworthy. However, his following night posts will be taken with a huge grain of salt. water_moon- What's the weakest town role and why? Bob- Same question. Muzzz- Care to explain yesterday's silence? Nolecub- How many days left does the town have to win this round in a worst case scenario? Naz- Who is more suspicious between BobTheWarrior and Aman? Ray Patean- If you were mafia, would you have targeted me the first night? Why or why not? Friedbananazzzz- What are your thoughts on w_m? Is she Miss Muffet or simply the spider that sat down beside her?
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Post by water_moon on Sept 25, 2008 23:34:43 GMT -5
Now noodle could have been sloppy mafia and forgotten the duel human reveal and thrown out a crazy theory to distract, or he could be honestly not paying attention. But interestignly enough he started ANOTHER storming lynch - on some one else - when the original target hasn't done or said anything to change the situation.
@liquid: the ones NK'ed, they're out of it unless they get lucky and if a power role they suffer knowing they COULD do somthing but unlike lynched ghosts, can not speak. Of the power roles? the one most heroic amongest us. He carries the burden of a revealing vote and dangerous knowledge, without the ability to gather that higher knowledge directly.
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Post by water_moon on Sept 25, 2008 23:41:21 GMT -5
plus the poor guy is an EX-hero, what kinda job title is that? It's not "retired hero" or "once and future hero" it's the Non hero, What exactly did he do to stop being a hero? only thing worst would be to be the "anti-hero"....
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 26, 2008 2:26:25 GMT -5
Unless I'm not understanding the roles in this game, 4 people are dead. All 4 are in human form, which means that non of the "bad" guys have been taken out yet. Which means, that the odds of them to us is now 4:8. Not numbers I'm liking at this point.
Muzzz: Where are you? Care to explain your absence? ::near the top of my list thus far::
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Post by jrlafrance on Sept 26, 2008 3:15:11 GMT -5
After doing some more reading, and back reading, I've noticed a few things.
Aman has a total of 1 post, on day 1, early. His silence had gone unnoticed until I went back through the thread. This silience is almost as suspicious as Muzzz's lack of presence.
W_M: Why did you cast your vote for CG on Day1? You posted that you didn't understand why he was getting votes, make a comment about someone else, then cast a vote for CG yourself. Not sure I understood that move.
LE: In your latest post, you call out several people. However, a couple were noticeably left out: Serdash, Noodle, Aman, and myself. Now I can speak for myself that I'm not Dragon or Undead. I know that you and the other three are good friends. If we can deduce that the Oracle can investigate someone that first night (when Cygnus died), that means that that 2 people have potentially been investigated thus far. Knowing that you are good friends with Serdash, Noodle and Aman, I wouldn't put it past you to investigate those first. Any reason why you didn't present questions or comments on those people?
That's all I've got for now...it's late here 1:15am, and I'm tired.
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Post by nolecub on Sept 26, 2008 7:14:50 GMT -5
Worst case scenario:
Right now, the worst case scenario is that the witch and orcale have perished. We are standing 8-4 atm. A bad lynch today puts us at 7-4.
Tonight, if both groups are able to stay away from their nemesis, i.e. Dragons kill the cleric, etc., then we enter tomorrow at 5-4. Even here we should have a good chance at catching one of the dragons/undead. If not, we are done for, because a bad lynch will put us at 4-4, and with 2 more lucky kills, 2-4. So worst case scenario, I say we have until tomorrow to do something positive.
Of course that is the worst case scenario. Eventually, one of groups is going to take out their own targeting their nemesis, and eventually, they are sure to NK a member of the other group.
So I see we have about 3 days to get this down, or else it will be a loss.
Your thoughts?
Question back to you: At what point do you think the oracle should come forward with any information that they may have? I don't think today is good at all.
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Post by bobthewarrior on Sept 26, 2008 9:47:13 GMT -5
@l_E - Homework?!?!? WTF?
I want to preface the below by stating that the order of operations at night is not entirely clear to me. Can a lynched player reveal their role in a ghost posting? Can the Witch wait until all of the ghosts have posted before deciding to revive someone? Can the oracle investigate someone and send a message to the ex-hero on the same night? If both the undead and the dragons target the cleric, which group gets the kill? Can the witch be killed before they have a chance to revive someone?
We started with a 12:4 game with 6 power roles. 50% of the town (6 of 12) had power roles. If we've been lucky, that percentage still holds true, and 4 of the remaining 8 humans alive are power roles. Who do we hope is still alive, and if they are what should they do?
The Witch is hopefully still alive and can use their revive ability tonight. I see no reason at the moment to delay using their ability if they are alive, especially if they can revive after the ghosts have posted.
The ex-Hero potentially has the most information in the game at this point. If the Oracle has investigated two parties and communicated that information to the ex-Hero, then the ex-Hero knows 1) the alignment of two people (although one could be false if the witch was investigated) and 2)that the oracle is still alive (or was at the beginning of last night). If the ex-Hero did not receive a message last night, they know the oracle is dead (or was silenced, but I find that unlikely as Muzzz was mute on day 1). If the oracle is dead, the ex-Hero has gained all the information they can, and if that information is not helpful, is a potential liability due to the double vote count if they pick the wrong person to lynch.
The Oracle has the same information as the ex-Hero, minus the fact that they don't know if the ex-Hero is still alive or not.
The Priest could have some useful information. However, as I stated above, I'm unsure of their limitations at night. If they are free to say whatever they want, there is no reason for them to speak up during the day to avoid a lynch and reveal themselves. They can simply wait for nightfall and claim Priest and reveal everything. However, if they're NK'd, they do not get to speak at night.
The Dragonslayer and the Cleric have obviously not been killed by the correct faction, or haven't been killed at all. I hope they're still alive, as I see them as the best chances to win. A free NK is always helpful.
Best case scenario All six power roles are alive. We lynch one of the undead/dragons, the remaining undead/dragons target the slayer/cleric and eliminate themselves tonight. One of the slayer/cleric would still be alive, as they were targeted by a individual. We still have one active rival and potentially one inactive rival.
Worst case scenario The slayer and cleric are dead by the wrong hands. The priest is dead as well. The oracle investigated the witch, and they and the ex-hero believe they've found an enemy in a friend. The ex-hero and oracle start the bandwagon on the witch, who is lynched today. The ex-hero and the oracle are NK'd tonight.
The gap between the best and worst case scenarios continues to narrow. In my opinion, today will be the turning point for the town. If we make a good choice and have a bit of luck, we'll have a good chance at finding our killers. Therefore, if those with information not known to the general public have not kept themselves safe yet, they would be wise to do so tonight. If they have already hidden, today may be a good day to come forward.
Suspicious list: nolecub jrlafrance Aman
Colorlessgreen was adamant about his vote today. He's a known townie, and I see nothing in nolecub's posts to convince me otherwise. I'm comfortable leaving this vote until the end of the day with the information currently available.
Vote: nolecub
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Post by Noodle on Sept 26, 2008 10:57:11 GMT -5
Now noodle could have been sloppy mafia and forgotten the duel human reveal and thrown out a crazy theory to distract, or he could be honestly not paying attention. But interestignly enough he started ANOTHER storming lynch - on some one else - when the original target hasn't done or said anything to change the situation. I was instructed pretty clearly not to base voting on someone's presence or absence, and so I moved away from Muzzz, the original target to whom you refer. I'm reminded of my folly even now. But, yeah, I missed the whole human reveal thing. Oh well - it was a good scenario while it lasted. - Noodle
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